> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation.
We spent an amount of money on data centers that was so large that it managed to overcome a self-imposed kick in the nuts from tariffs and then some. The amount of money involved rivals the creation of the railroad system in the United States. Of course GDP overperformed in that scenario.
Where did AI tool use show up in the productivity numbers?
Productivity increase is what showed in the numbers. AI is the partial attribution chair Powell gave for the reason. Quotes from December meeting:
"Reporter: ...do you believe that we’re experiencing a positive productivity
shock, whether from AI or policy factors or whatever?"
"Powell: So, yeah, I mean, I never thought I would see a time when we had, you know, five, six years of 2 percent productivity growth. This is higher. You know, this is definitely higher. And it was—before, it could be attributed to AI. I think you—I also think if you look at what AI can do and if you use it in your personal life, as I imagine many of us have, you can see the prospects for productivity. I think it makes people who use it more productive. It may make other people have to find other jobs, though. So it could have productivity implications"
And:
"Reporter: If I could just follow up on the SEP. You have a whole lot of—big increase in the growth numbers, but not a big decline in the unemployment numbers. And is that an AI factor in there?"
"Powell: So it is—the implication is obviously higher productivity. And some of that may be AI."
He also hedges in places, hesitant to say "Yes that's the reason". I'm not sure anything in the data sets they use could directly capture it as the reason so that's too high a bar for evidence- to require some line item in the reports with a direct attribution. He could be wrong, it might not be AI, but I don't have any reason to thing his sense of things is wrong either.
We spent an amount of money on data centers that was so large that it managed to overcome a self-imposed kick in the nuts from tariffs and then some. The amount of money involved rivals the creation of the railroad system in the United States. Of course GDP overperformed in that scenario.
Where did AI tool use show up in the productivity numbers?