I agree that the "will [person] say [word]" markets are stupid. "Will Brian Armstrong say the word 'Bitcoin' in the Q4 earnings call" is a stupid market because nobody a actually cares whether or not he actually says 'Bitcoin', they care about whether or not Coinbase is focusing on Bitcoin. If Armstrong manipulates the market by saying the words without actually doing anything, nobody wins except Armstrong. "Will Coinbase process $10B in Bitcoin transactions in Q4" is a much better market because, though Armstrong could still manipulate the market's outcome, his manipulation would influence a result that people actually care about. The existence of stupid markets doesn't invalidate the concept.