100%. It's like Lenin said, you look for the person who will benefit… and, uh, uh, you know… You know, you'll uh, uh—well, you know what I'm trying to say…
It's a valid way to look for probable cause but it's important differ "you know" and "you assume" - I'm all for accountability but most conspiracy theories thrive exactly because of that sort of framing.
As to Lenin: The mouse died because it didn't understand why the cheese was free
