> Briefly, the argument goes that if there is a 0.001% chance of AGI delivering an extremely large amount of value, and 99.999% chance of much less or zero value, then the EV is still extremely large because (0.001% * very_large_value) + (99.999% * small_value) = very_large_value
I haven't heard of that being the argument. The main perspective I'm aware of is that more powerful AI models have a compounding multiplier on productivity, and this trend seems likely to continue at least in the near future considering how much better coding models are at boosting productivity now compared to last year.
> I haven't heard of that being the argument. The main perspective I'm aware of is that more powerful AI models have a compounding multiplier on productivity, and this trend seems likely to continue at least in the near future considering how much better coding models are at boosting productivity now compared to last year.
This is the new line now that LLMs are being commoditized, but in the post-Slate Star Codex AI/Tech Accelerationist era of like '20-'23 the Pascal's wager argument was very much a thing. In my experience it's kind of the "true believer" argument, whereas the ROI/productivity thing is the "I'm in it for the bag" argument.
Right. Nobody makes a Pascal's wager-style argument in _favor_ of investing in AGI. People have sometimes made one against building AGI, on existential risk grounds. The OP author is about as confused on this as the water usage point... But the appetite for arguments against AI (which has legitimate motivations!) is so high that people are willing to drop any critical thinking.
That's not Pascal's Wager unless they're saying AGI has infinitesimal probability but infinite payoff, or something like that. If they think AGI is likely, they may be wrong but it's just technological optimism.
I haven't heard of that being the argument. The main perspective I'm aware of is that more powerful AI models have a compounding multiplier on productivity, and this trend seems likely to continue at least in the near future considering how much better coding models are at boosting productivity now compared to last year.