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We shouldn't judge whether an indicator is stable or okay only by looking to see if its the highest historical value.

PE ratios of 50 make no sense, there is no justification for such a ratio. At best we can ignore the ratio and say PE ratios are only useful in certain situations and this isn't one of them.

Imagine if we applied similar logic to other potential concerns. Is a genocide of 500,000 people okay because others have done drastically more?



I’m not asking if it makes sense, I’m simply pointing out that by that measure this is much less extreme than 2000. As I stated, I think we’re in a bubble, so valuations won’t make much sense.

If you have a better measure, share it. I trust data more than your or my feelings on the matter.


Unless you have evidence that this measure of yours is a reliable predictor of how big a bubble is, it's on par with my gut feeling.




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