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> It's the most plausible, fact-based guess, beating other competing theories.

"My wildly conjectural and self-serving theory is not only correct, it is the most correct".

Lol perfectly represents the arrogance of hn.



The article describes evidence for a concrete, straightforward organizational decay pattern that can explain a large part of this miserable failure. What's "self-serving" about such a theory?

My personal "guess" is that failing to retain knowledge and talent is only one of many components of a well-rounded crisis of bad management and bad company culture that has been eroding Amazon on more fronts than AWS reliability.

What's your theory? Conspiracy within Amazon? Formidable hostile hackers? Epic bad luck? Something even more movie-plot-like? Do you care about making sense of events in general?


My theory is someone fucked up. There’s literally no information that gives us any additional insight to what happened yet.




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