I am cautiously optimistic. But also curious what this community thinks about Trump‘s role. If this progresses, does he deserve a Nobel peace prize for it? Or is it more that other nations in the region applied pressure for Hamas to accept a deal?
Being the figurative 800-pound gorilla in the room, it seems to me that he was indeed able to put sufficient pressure on both sides to get them to agree. Obviously it's still too early to know if it will last, but if it does, and if he can then somehow put pressure to get actual normalization between Israel and the rest of the Middle East, then I would personally chip in to get him the Nobel.
normalization between israel, SA and other countries were on fast track till oct 7. One of the goals of hamas was to prevent it https://archive.is/IYqT4
I remember this. If I resell, Saudi Arabia was ready to formally recognize Israel and establish mutual diplomatic relations. A huge deal, and the timing of October 7 seems too exact to be coincidental. The attack did work - polls show the citizenry of Saudi Arabia is overwhelmingly aligned with Hamas, with over 95% denying the atrocities (murder, rape, mutilation) of October 7.
He doesn't really deserve it, but honestly, the Peace Prize has such a checkered history that "deserve" really isn't relevant. It's the "obvious" compromise, one they should have reached years ago, and he's the main thing that changed in that time. So let's chalk the win up to him.
I doubt he'll get it. The committee really hates being pestered this way. They can't give it this year, and a year from now this is going to be largely forgotten. The Peace Prize is intended to be for lasting accomplishments, not for a ceasefire.
But I want to give credit where it's due. Both sides hate this compromise -- Israelis are livid about releasing 2,000 prisoners, at least some of whom are mass murderers, in exchange for 20 innocent people who should never have been involved. That was a hard thing to achieve.
So, to demonstrate that I'm willing to say something nice about somebody who will never, ever say anything nice about me: sure, give the man a prize.
In theory the Palestinians (nor even Hamas) shouldn’t be too unhappy about this compromise. The draft deal had some serious issues, many of which flat out illegal under international law, and in a just world these parts would never actually be implemented and instead Palestine would get their independent and democratic state. As well as many Israelis would be tried for the crime of genocide.
Regarding the hostages, Hamas wasn’t gaining anything by keeping them, the best they could hope for was a prisoner swap, since Israel was more then happy to continue the genocide even if that would cost the lives of hostages. So releasing them will not cost Hamas any leverage, really.
But regrettably we don‘t live in a just world, and the best we can hope for is that this ceasefire will last long enough for the international community to step up their game and actually assert pressure on Israel to not only not break the ceasefire, but also to implement their obligations to international law and give Palestinians a) civil rights b) a political means of resistance, and c) self determination.
"Just" isn't even on the table. I can only talk about it in terms of Realpolitik, the things that might actually happen.
I don't believe anything past the prisoner swap will be executed. If we're lucky, the ceasefire will last until next year, at which point Israeli elections will alter the calculus. That's so fundamental that everything after that is utterly opaque.
It pains me to say it, but I fear you are right. Israel has terrible track record when it comes to following their own peace agreements. Aside from unilaterally breaking the ceasefire with Hamas last March, they are also serially breaking their ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, both without consequences.
I really hope we are wrong here and this will be a lasting ceasefire, but If we are not, Europe has really paid all nearly all the political capital they have to spare for Israel complicity. I think Europe will get some political capital back from this ceasefire, but it will not be enough to cover for Israel breaking it the second time. And my hope (in case this ceasefire fails) that Europe will be forced to assert pressure. It would be better if Europe would assert pressure to Israel to keep the current ceasefire, but regrettably, that is highly unlikely.
It's somewhat disingenuous of you to talk about Israel terrible track record when it comes to following their own peace agreements and referring to ceasefires as example while ignoring actual peace agreements that been rocks solid for decades.
Ceasefire with hezbollah/lebnon has part that says that in case hezbollah doesn't get disarmed Israel has right to casually bomb whenever it identifies danger to itself. Lebanese are very aware of this part of agreement.
With regards to hamas ceasefire (given that you ignore at least or cheer at most how hamas violated it on oct 7th or hezbollah on oct 8th), it was ceasefire for negotiations. hamas didn't negotiate. ceasefire ended.
Israel’s track record of unilaterally violating ceasefire agreements (and agreements and international law in general) is a matter of fact, not of opinion. You can look up this track record your self. What other parties do is only more to the point of how unlikely it is that it lasts.
However unlike Israel, the international community asserts pressure onto both Hamas and Hezbollah. Both are considered terrorist groups by several governments, and both are under sever international sanctions as a result. The international community is doing what they can to put pressure on Hamas and Hezbollah (with questionable results), but they are doing very little to put pressure on Israel, which is the reason I talk specifically about Israel’s track record here.
Sure, only if he brought peace (unity) to the only country he is suppose to be leading; instead of his violent, misrepresentative comments and actions towards Americans and American cities that didn't vote for him. Heal the wounds he caused, condoned and encouraged. Stop dividing the US. Stop the hate towards out-group Americans. Actually care about and be a leader for America First. All of America/ns.
What a cruel joke. Trump's role in negotiations was to threaten to fully back Israel's genocide of Palestinians if Hamas were to refuse the deal. The actual 'peace plan' also doesn't have any credible roadmap to a Palestinian state or anything that ensures a life of dignity,security and self-determination for the Palestinian people. In fact, it is framed to ensure the opposite. Trump deserves a trial in the Hague, not a Nobel.
