I understand the industrial revolution happened. To say this revolution is the same and will produce the same benefits is already factually wrong. One revolution created a net positive of jobs. One has only taken jobs.
I would say we don't know that yet. Comparing the current state of LLMs to what they can lead to or what they might enable later on is like comparing early machine prototypes to what we have today.
I can also 100% tell you that the farming folk of 100 years ago also felt like the farming machines took away their jobs. They saw 0 positives. The ones that could (were young) went into industry, the others... well, at the same time we instituted pensions, which were of course paid for by the active population, so it kind of turned out ok in the end.
I do wonder, what will be the repercussions of this technology. It might turn into a dud or it might truly turn into a revolution.
this is always the answer that the hopeful give: "previous revolutions of this kind, i.e., the Industrial Revolution, created a host of new professions we didn't even know existed, so this one will as well." Except that it was obvious quite early on what the professions created by those revolutions were. Factories were springing up immediately and employing those who had been working in the fields. The pace of change was much slower too; it took about 150 years in the US for the transformation from an agrarian society to an industrial one to happen. That provides time for society to adjust.
I have yet to see anyone demonstrate even an idea of new professions -- that may employ millions of people -- that are likely to emerge. So far, the "hope" is a pipe dream.
However, aren't there now a lot of job openings out there for LLM-whisperers and other kinds of AI domain experts? Surely these didn't exist in the same quantity 10 years ago.
(I'm just picking nits. I do agree that this "revolution" is not the same and will not necessarily produce the same benefits as the industrial revolution.)
