- move (the company) out of the US (i.e. to less imposing jurisdictions).
If companies choose the latter, the irony is the resulting reduction in US tax revenue from companies moving out could outweigh the gains in revenue from the $100k H-1B tax, thus resulting in lower US government tax revenues due to the change.
Look if they are willing to do this, what makes you think they will allow them to move abroad without severe penalties? We are in a new era. Think of all the power the US government could bring to bear on a company.
> what makes you think they will allow them to move abroad without severe penalties
To my knowledge, there's no penalty (severe or otherwise) for shutting down a company in the US.
There are probably many more gentle solutions too, like if a multi-national wants an H-1B, but they have offices in other countries, they might simply hire through their offices in other jurisdictions. The employee could even take extended work trips to the US if required (but remain hired through the other country's office).
I think you underestimate the new populist era of state capitalism. The free market no longer reigns supreme. National interest is the guiding light. They will figure out ways to coerce companies to follow their agenda.
Maybe so, but the point is, this whole 'we'll just move abroad and outsource and there will be no consequences' doesn't take into account how the environment has changed. Do tech companies really want to face off against the power of the government? Is that even a fight they could win? The government could sanction them, cut off their access to the US banking system. All sorts of ways to make them hurt.
It doesn't have to be as dramatic as companies loudly announcing they are moving abroad - US is in a different political era indeed. But it sure will affect the decisions on where companies grow their headcount and where they shrink it or keep the same.
Longer term it will affect where companies establish their headquarters too. US used to be the place for entrepreneurs with global ambitions, but if it rejects globalism they will have to look elsewhere
- stomach the cost increase,
- reduce the number of H-1Bs they hire,
- move (the company) out of the US (i.e. to less imposing jurisdictions).
If companies choose the latter, the irony is the resulting reduction in US tax revenue from companies moving out could outweigh the gains in revenue from the $100k H-1B tax, thus resulting in lower US government tax revenues due to the change.