Meta is so cooked, I think most enterprises will opt for OpenAI or Anthropic and others will host OSS models themselves or on AWS/infra providers.

I'll accept Meta's frontier AI demise if they're in their current position a year from now. People killed Google prematurely too (remember Bard?), because we severely underestimate the catch-up power bought with ungodly piles of cash.

And boy, with the $250m offers to people, Meta is definitely throwing ungodly piles of cash at the problem.

But Apple is waking up too. So is Google. It's absolutely insane, the amount of money being thrown around.

It's insane numbers like that that give me some concern for a bubble. Not because AI hits some dead end, but due to a plateau that shifts from aggressive investment to passive-but-steady improvement.

catching up gets exponentially harder as time passes. way harder to catch up to current models than it was to the first iteration of gpt-4

Maverick and Scout were not great, even with post-training in my experience, and then several Chinese models at multiple sizes made them kind of irrelevant (dots, Qwen, MiniMax)

If anything this helps Meta: another model to inspect/learn from/tweak etc. generally helps anyone making models

There's nothing new here in terms of architecture. Whatever secret sauce is in the training.

Part of the secret sauce since O1 has been accesss the real reasoning traces, not the summaries.

If you even glance at the model card you'll see this was trained on the same CoT RL pipeline as O3, and it shows in using the model: this is the most coherent and structured CoT of any open model so far.

Having full access to a model trained on that pipeline is valuable to anyone doing post-training, even if it's just to observe, but especially if you use it as cold start data for your own training.

Its CoT is sadly closer to that sanitised o3 summaries than to R1 style traces.

It has both raw and summarized traces.

I mean raw GPT-OSS is close to summarised o3.

I believe their competition is from chinese companies , for some time now

They will clone it