Because if broke bad again, it could just be forked again so no risk?

It's AGPL licensed now so forking it is fairly different to how it was when Valkey forked - it'll have to keep that license, and AGPL is one that quite a lot of companies don't want to touch (whether or not you think that judgement is 'correct').

All of the cloud providers are already in on BSD-licensed Valkey, so which community is realistically going to take over AGPL Redis next time around? The much smaller group of Redict proponents?

There's only so much manpower to go around and much of it is otherwise preoccupied now.

Momentum is a very scary thing. I don’t want to be trained to install valkey-server instead of redis-server again (or vice versa)

How often do you (re)install redis-server for this to be a problem? It's just a thing you type once in a build script for me.