I got my quarterly report from my RIA. I pay them 1% annually of my holdings which is about 50k. They basically said expect a lot more major portfolio strategy change if the tariffs aren’t lifted. Every paragraph said the current policy is dangerous, in a different way, without attacking trump directly. Been with them 15 years and they’ve never sounded this worried.
To be honest it seems all kinda by design. It seems Intentional to cause this much disruption that will primarily affect the lower and middle classes portfolios that can't withstand as long in long term economic droughts.
It also leaves more with uncertainty so they get stuck at their current jobs for longer rather than leaving, giving more control back to employers.
Everything implemented seems to be intentionally pushing even more economic inequality and divide between the top and the bottom, and to push the diminishing middle class even lower down on the totem pole.
Trade wars are class wars. This is big business pushing back on labor gains made from the last few years. They can't let labor keep any power or gains because it means we might ask for more instead of continuing to defer to corporate power and the ultra rich.
I expect a wave of bad economic news, followed by a wave of consolidation, all the while prices rising, and toward the end of all this, the tariffs will be fully removed, but the prices will not meaningfully (if at all) come down, and the consolidation will have only further entrenched power at the top
I think you're crazy as an individual to be holding anything but bonds at this point. What growth, exactly, are you hoping to capture? I'm not living in this lunatic's fever dream world. It's exactly what he wants; for the first and last thoughts of your day to be about what he has done, hoping and praying that he undoes it.
> I think you're crazy as an individual to be holding anything but bonds at this point
What bonds? There is an almost zero chance that the expenses of the US government decrease while there is a good chance that their revenue takes a hit. At some point you can't pay your dues (and no, printing currency is not paying your dues, you are getting hit on your basis).
Indeed I'd expect just about everyone holding cash is going to take a >10% haircut over the next year purely from the inflation that is about to explode. It's a devil you know kind of scenario.
> I think you're crazy as an individual to be holding anything but bonds at this point.
I'm leaving my diversified retirement mutual funds as they are, because that's why they are diversified; but otherwise yeah, I sold all my other holdings during the rebound earlier this month. Not interested in participating in this wild ride.
This is why I pay someone who manages billions to take on my portfolio. If you’re smarter than my RIA can I hire you? Let me see your track record first.
I am not. This is almost entirely an emotional decision. The "smart" thing to do from a purely algorithmic statistical point of view would be hold and wait. But I'll happily take my 5% for now, rather than waking up to crippling anxiety every morning about what the orange man is going to do next.
>> waking up to crippling anxiety every morning about what the orange man is going to do next.
Fair enough. I’m not a therapist but I have a multi decade investment horizon. And if my conservative portfolio tanks there will be much larger problems.
What is your investment horizon and when do you plan to buy back in?
Also did you take a huge take hit to reallocate to bonds or was it all in tax advantage accounts? Seems more crazy to sell all equities when you have to pay tax on the gains.
What will happen in the market if Trump keeps blinking and folds further, congress takes back the tariff power, Trump loses big in the midterms, GOP loses big in 28, AI ends up being a big thing, etc?
You will eventually have to buy back in and you don't know where the bottom is.
>"Also did you take a huge take hit to reallocate to bonds or was it all in tax advantage accounts? Seems more crazy to sell all equities when you have to pay tax on the gains."
Speaking entirely to retirement accounts. Taxables are pretty much screwed either way.
>"What will happen in the market if Trump keeps blinking and folds further, congress takes back the tariff power, Trump loses big in the midterms, GOP loses big in 28, AI ends up being a big thing, etc?"
Maybe I will miss some growth. But watching my life's work evaporate on this wild ride is too much to stomach.
>"You will eventually have to buy back in and you don't know where the bottom is."
Indeed, and I don't intend to time it. Not waiting for a rebound. Waiting for sanity.
