> Usually short term price fluctuation would be in response to something like a sudden change in market demand or something like a natural disaster lowering production
That's theoretical economics, meanwhile in the real world, retail stores change the prices of goods depending on the weather or holidays.
And in your theory thousands of vendors around the world all randomly did this in the same direction at the same time? It’s not like chocolate eggs before Easter are the only thing going up while the rest of the economy is chugging along like normal.
Similarly, weather could explain the decline of winter gear sales in the northern hemisphere or specific commodities being hit by a storm but that wouldn’t affect the whole economy and we’d all have seen coverage of some epic monsoon or drought if it was that impactful.
I just gave you examples of the most common reasons for price changes that your mental model wasn't taking into account.
Prices vary based on many more factors than what you think it does, that's it.
> all randomly did this in the same direction at the same time
Who says it's random? Most of the variation is very likely linked to the US government actions, but the first order effect of actual tariffs is far from the only way the Trump administration is messing up the economy. In fact, the mess started long before the tariffs actually went enforced and it didn't stop when they where suspended.
That's theoretical economics, meanwhile in the real world, retail stores change the prices of goods depending on the weather or holidays.