Oil has varied in a range of about 23% in the last few weeks, and the USD to CNY rate. Raw material for many things (like plastics) and obviously used for transport.

Oil has gone down, though, and the primary driver for the volatility was the tariffs. It’s not like there was a big change in production or something like the pandemic causing millions of people to change their driving habits.

Again, the question is simply what non-tariff factor would explain non-trivial prices over a month? If there isn’t one, it doesn’t seem unfair to attribute the increase to a huge policy change.

> Again, the question is simply what non-tariff factor would explain non-trivial prices over a month?

Having the most economically clueless US president in a century and watching his erratic behavior in real time.

Tariffs are only a small piece of the puzzle.

Oil has primarily gone down. Demand destruction tends to do that.

It went up then down. Either way, its still makes the assumption that "price change is purely due to tariffs" inaccurate - it just changes the direction of the error.