The odds on Polymarket (and other betting markets) started diverging at the start of October; by the end of the month, the odds were 65/35 in favour of Trump.
At the time, many commentators were arguing that this was obvious market manipulation. It turned out that the trader who had supposedly manipulated the market had in fact commissioned private polls using an alternative methodology - rather than asking people how they would vote, it asked how they expected their neighbours to vote.
Interesting. If you think about it, that's how the stock market works. It's not how much you think a stock is worth; it's really how much you think everyone else thinks the stock is worth.
That is similar with stocks. I'd say the difference is that PolyMarket has an end date where everything gets resolved one way or another. Stocks can go on forever.
Oh you're right, it is basically the same, the undervalued stock is the one to buy. I guess I was thinking about another difference which is that the value of stocks seems more vibes-based and a really stupid product (from the investor's perspective) can sometimes become popular. In prediction markets the outcome is more concrete.
No, it was fairly well known a decade or more ago as a very good way to remove bias for how low-effort it is. We were using a variation of it at work back then for an unrelated subject.
How much it's used in political polling I can't say.
At the time, many commentators were arguing that this was obvious market manipulation. It turned out that the trader who had supposedly manipulated the market had in fact commissioned private polls using an alternative methodology - rather than asking people how they would vote, it asked how they expected their neighbours to vote.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-20...
https://www.ft.com/content/e8b2ff85-a4dd-40cd-a4c1-e3d706869...
https://www.ft.com/content/4b302ab8-7e40-4d1a-bbe6-3d46f6811...