Horse accidents aren't a leading cause of death though. Seems like it'll depend on how thoroughly self-driving becomes a thing of the past on its own.

They were a leading cause of death when they were a common mode of transport.

Riding a horse is very dangerous. Its just regarded as an acceptable risk (its something many people encourage kids to do) for cultural and social reasons. A British government scientific advisor was fired for pointing out that riding a horse carries about 30 times the risk of a "serious adverse effect" as taking ecstasy.

>A British government scientific advisor was fired for pointing out that riding a horse carries about 30 times the risk of a "serious adverse effect" as taking ecstasy.

Could we have a link for this one please?

> Horse accidents aren't a leading cause of death though.

Sure, not now. Because cars replaced them.

> Seems like it'll depend on how thoroughly self-driving becomes a thing of the past on its own.

Based on my experience with Waymo if they come to Seattle in the next two years I won’t buy another car.

Change the question to "highways" then. (at least in most European countries, AFAIK horses are banned from them)

That’s a completely different question though. Horses were banned from railroads too.

You tried to establish self driving cars as a threat to human driven cars using horses as an example.

Highways were invented for cars. Horses were never allowed there.

There’s no comparable proposal for self driving cars.

This comment shows exactly why I like this question.

Lot of related topics to branch out to! I actually wasn't ever interested in the "cut off date", but all these side topics, and why some people think differently about what the trajectory looks like today.