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>Fourth you must bet big

Big blunder. Killing every profitable trade. You have to account for the fact that loosing hurts comparatively more than winning. Keyword is "log optimal".



So this is the Kelly criteria etc (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion).

Yes I get it - but take the example on the page - 60% chance of a win and get back same bet size, I guess most people would be reluctant to bet 1/5 of their bankroll each time.

Esp if you are not sure about the 60%.

I think most people would see 1/5 as betting big. Is what I am saying.

If you see it as betting small, maybe I would like to understand




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