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With everything intel-coded you can quickly figure out what is actually happening by applying the three point framework:

[1] What we know: Iran does not have a strong drone program, and it is almost impossible to get a ship that close to our shores without it being blown to literal bits by our 3 navy's.

[2] Noise: Congress has almost no insight into what the DoD does outside of hearings and oversight committees; Jeff Van Drew is on none of the committees that oversee any of our drone programs or space command, nor do these meet on a frequent enough cadence for them to have weighed in intel already. He's also a gun nut pro-lifer who has voted with Russian interests in the last two votes, and I doubt he would receive many markings or special briefings from intel agencies. The Pentagon (which currently directly oversees TF Lima, is where CDAO is based out of, and collaborates closely with SPACECOM) has also very publicly shot down these claims.

[3] Boring explanation: he's making it all up.



Iran does not have a strong drone program

They punch above their weight, and have one of the most battle tested drone program besides the US.

https://www.dia.mil/Portals/110/Documents/News/Military_Powe...


This release just links Iranian technology to UAVs used against Ukraine; they are nowhere near the capabilities of top military powers. The only country that can claim the #2 spot on the list is China.

To give you an idea of the comparison, Iranian drones are not even close capability wise to a Reaper. The Reaper is damn near EOL as it was developed in 2007(!) and is basically caveman technology compared to what we are currently running.


they are nowhere near the capabilities of top military powers

Russia is a top military power, and they use Iranian drones.

BTW, I didn't say they were number 2, I said they were battle tested unlike other top programs, like China'. Iran's drones are currently actively being used in two wars (vs Ukraine, vs Israel).

I don't think there are Iranian drones in NJ, but it isn't because they don't have a capable program. It's because it makes no sense.


Russia is not a top military power when it comes to technology, and probably not manpower after bleeding out in Ukraine.

There are plenty of advanced drone programs that are "battle tested." They are successful and so you do not hear about them :)

I maintain the Iranian drone program is incapable. They are very similar to the Ukrainian drones, botched together and little more than big model airplanes with explosives inside. They neither have the capability to get a ship onto our shores, nor to launch drones undetected, nor to pilot them undetected, nor to evade our defenses and intelligence network.


Whatever these drones are they're smart enough to vanish once we try to tail them. It's likely not simply Iranian tech. Remember China and Iran are allies, and sharing technology. If China wanted to prove something to the USA, they could easily let Iran do it, simply to cause less of an "International Incident" if the truth comes out of what's going on. My hunch is that it's a Chinese Technology Demonstration, and the "mothership" might be nothing more than a cargo container on a cargo ship. That would go totally unnoticed by our military sensor arrays.




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