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Smoking is one of the nastiest habits society has acquired. Twenty years ago it looked like smoking was on the way out, but recent trends are troubling and show how weak we are in the face of determined actors with financial motives.

Facts like these are good to see, because every little bit of incentive to help people stop smoking is needed. The trouble however is not getting people started in the first place…

The downwards trend of the percentage of people who smoke is stagnating, and recent research has shown that the way people pick up smoking is, predictably and indeed, by stepping up from vaping. The short summary is that for susceptible young teenagers vaping is cool, and then when they turn 15 or 16, vaping is too childish, and 'real' smoking is where it's at. Smoking is still 'cool', and now even 'retro-cool'. By that time they are quite addicted to nicotine, so it's either vaping, tobacco smoking, or quitting. The latter of course being really hard at that age. Big tobacco won this round.

It's not all bad of course. Smoking has been successfully banished from lots of places. This varies by country, but I for one really appreciate not having to breath smoke in public transport, offices, shops, restaurants, and bars, and not having to see parents smoke on the school grounds (thereby denormalizing smoking for children). I saw society change in that regard, and it is positive.

But I loathe the people who kept delaying acting on vapes taking over part of our youth and keeping them smoking for the foreseeable future.



A quick google suggests to me that smoking trends are still falling in the US and globally on average. imo smoking is considered lame to americans as a sign that someone doesn't have their shit together.


>predictably and indeed, by stepping up from vaping.

Do you have any citations for this? I don't know any vapers in the younger generation who switched to cigarettes who hadn't already picked up the cigarette habit.

Looking further, I don't see any uptick in cigarette smoking rates.

https://www.lung.org/research/trends-in-lung-disease/tobacco....


It was reported this month in a national Dutch newspaper:

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2024/10/01/beginnen-met-een-sigare...

I'm not sure if any specific scientific research points out this link, but it has been suspected for a while based on anecdotal evidence. The interviews in the newspaper article are examples of that (and not limited to this one news source).

The stagnation of the downward trend has been documented though:

https://www.vzinfo.nl/roken/jongeren#elektro-roken-scholiere...


> how weak we are in the face of determined actors with financial motives.

And a highly addictive product. Nicotine is just plain bad for us anyway, so all the "safe" alternatives are just BS.


Nicotine by itself is pretty much harmless.


The fatal human dose has been estimated to be about 50 to 60 mg

https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/idlh/54115.html


Really this is one of the more useless statistics. It's pretty much impossible to OD unless you're a toddler and you accidentally drink juice.

What matters is the affects small amounts of nicotine, repeatedly, have over time. Nicotine increases blood pressure and so it slowly destroys your cardiovascular system. Smoking is, of course, bad for your lungs.

The combination of lung damage and heart damage is deadly. Typically heart failure will require more oxygen in your blood to make up for the fact your heart doesn't work. But the lungs are bad at extracting oxygen when they have pulmonary damage.


Maybe not a useful statistic, but it's definitely 100% not harmless in the correct dosage. It has been successfully used for both murder and suicide. Being water-soluble, just soak tobacco leaves in water and you'll eventually be able to extract a useful amount.

I smoked for >20 years, quit for 10, then started again when dealing with grief after my partner passed away, and smoked for another 10. I get it, literally: high-blood pressure, etc. Although, when quitting, it was always the tar that really drove me crazy.

Another thing I've realized, is that smoking is a double-whammy vector towards heart disease: smoking promotes heart disease directly, but smoking also promotes gum disease, and gum disease promotes heart disease.


Its cardiovascular effects are not harmless by any stretch.


And the child-friendly flavours (bubblegum ice blast! crème brûlée! strawberry!) and packaging just plain immoral.

Oddly, nicotine as such is not that harmful, comparatively. It's the addiction (and the potential to escalate to inhaling carcinogens) which makes it so bad.


Chewing tobacco is harmful too, and there you are not inhaling anything. Nicotine is harmful in itself. (that is why plants make it - it tends to kill predators. Humans are just large enough that it dilutes in our body by enough to not kill)


Chewing tobacco is nastily harmful for a variety of reasons, but there too nicotine is mostly only harmful in that it is highly addictive:

https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/quit-smoking/in...

Nicotine poisoning is possible, but not for adults at normal dosages. It's all the other crap your inhaling, sucking, or melting which is carcinogenic or otherwise directly harmful. Taking nicotine regularly isn't that healthy, but the reason nicotine is bad is really mostly down to its addictive nature.




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