Knowing that a candidate will get 48%-52% of popular vote is indeed more helpful... | Hacker News

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		LudwigNagasena on June 16, 2024 \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: How The Economist’s presidential forecast works Knowing that a candidate will get 48%-52% of popular vote is indeed more helpful than not knowing what’s going on at all. Aleatory, epistemic and ontological uncertainties are three different things.

twelfthnight on June 16, 2024 [–]

Honest question, what different decisions could you make with a 48-52 interval than a completely uninformed interval of 0-100?

ta1243 on June 16, 2024 | [–]

You know where to spend your resources.

If you can move the needle in 5 states by a total of 25 points, you aren't going to waste them in a states where it's 60-40.

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