If everyone looks at a trade like this as prima facie evidence of insider trading, why are these options even for sale?
It is like a casino, except if you win the jackpot you get arrested. Because we run our economy under the law that requires stock prices to be set by ignorant people.
The law requires not ignorant people, but equally ignorant people. This extremely well-timed trade is just an indication that the trader may not be equally as ignorant as the rest of us.
I think the suspicious thing is that these were bought right before the announcement of the acquisition. If they had bough the options at any other time and made money it would not be notable.
What’s unusual is the volume of contracts purchased, not the contracts in and of themselves… without knowledge of a merger, these contracts had a 99.9% chance of expiring worthless the very next day, so buying $20k worth is rather suspicious…
It is like a casino, except if you win the jackpot you get arrested. Because we run our economy under the law that requires stock prices to be set by ignorant people.