I've seen some layoffs and the first to go where the people the most "unproductive". So, there were sale people (which were actually pretty decent, but they "cost" money and had to go), and then there were also people who were just "less" good. Less senior, more junior and could not do things autonomously.

But I can agree that it's always very subjective and of course the one who is friend with the boss ABC will have more chance despite maybe performing less good...

I have seen a lot of layoffs over the years and I would put the main targets into here buckets:

1. People with bad relationships with he boss and bosses boss. 2. People with higher salaries. 3. Unlucky folks where an entire line of business or corporate department is shut down.

Number 1 is the vast majority of the cases. Make sure your boss smiles when they see you and you can sleep well at night.

This is the fundamental conceit of stack-ranking layoffs, which Microsoft did annually for many years.

Don't forget "most talented people who accept the severance pay and get another job" from the pre-layoff voluntary departure.

You can do early-retirement by age but if you do lay-offs by age that's going to be an age-discrimination problem if you target >40.