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Agree with the second part.

As for the first part - yes, it would count. Timing of things is impossible to predict of course. But being right in the first place, shouldn't be underestimated !

Let's take crypto as an example - one can predict it's going to 0, and one can say it will go to 1M$. Even though you don't know when, being right is the only chance you make something out of it.



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