Im sure the IPCC authors didn't forget their climate science 101 material.
Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.
No it doesn't, that's just people trying to tie together two hobby-horses. Nobody is migrating to Europe or America because of climate change, they're migrating because of wealth and war.
If you live in an agricultural area and can't get sufficient water for irrigation anymore, the distinction between climate change, wealth and war is pretty immaterial.
Do you seriously think that if, in say 30 years, substantial chunks of the tropics-to-tropics range of latitude have become too hot/dry for mass agriculture, that people will not be trying to migrate?
I haven't seen anyone claiming that there is currently mass migration due to climate change. But I haven't seen anyone claiming that previous climate change events (anthropogenic or not) were not accompanied by mass migration (even if the absolute numbers of people were smaller due to total population)
You used the present tense in the post I replied to. But as you say, currently it's not true and there is no correlation between climate change and migration, because the climate hasn't actually changed anywhere near enough in any location to cause people to move.
> I haven't seen anyone claiming that previous climate change events (anthropogenic or not) were not accompanied by mass migration
What climate change events were you thinking of? Medieval warm period? I don't think there's any record of anything that we'd call a mass migration, any time in history beyond the past few hundred years. Not unless you count migrations that took place over tens of thousands of years as mass migration.
> the climate hasn't actually changed anywhere near enough in any location to cause people to move.
Where I live (near Santa Fe, NM), human civilization has moved in and out several times over the last, say, 5000 years, always correlated with the arrival of long term drought conditions. The last big movement was during the megadrought of the late 1300's, and apparently involved migrations of between 300 and 1000 miles.
Similar patterns are well known to archaeologists and anthropologists across the planet.
Also "and migration" doesn't have any tense or time context and even the GP's wording ("X tends to correlate with Y") is also largely free of any implied time period.
ISIS came after the breakdown of society due to crop failure after crop failure.
Migration started end masse after Russia was invited over to kill every civilian in sight. But that is also after Assad lost the ability to control and feed the population, something he wasn't doing very well anyway, granted, but without climate change related failed harvests its hard to imagine it had spiralled out of control.
Does it?
We have fewer and fewer death because of climate (most death of climate is because of cold)
We have a proxy war in Ukraine that has nothing to do with climate
We have a famine in Sri Lanka that was caused by the green movement
The narrative of climate is the cause of all problems isn’t reasonable anymore.
Robust institutions disagree on whether heat or cold is more significant:
> Extreme heat and extreme cold both kill hundreds of people each year in the U.S., but determining a death toll for each is a process subject to large errors. In fact, two major U.S. government agencies that track heat and cold deaths--NOAA and the CDC--differ sharply in their answer to the question of which is the bigger killer.
> In the course of this century, the percentage of the European population dying from cold temperatures will steadily decrease, while the percentage of the population dying from heat will increase. The latter increase will start to exceed the reduction of cold-weather related mortality in the second half of this century, especially in the Mediterranean. As a result, mortality in Europe related to non-optimal temperatures will start to increase by the end of the century in a moderate scenario of climate change, and already by the middle of the century in the high-end scenario of climate change.
Derived from: Martínez-Solanas et al., 2021. Lancet Planetary Health 5: e446–54
There is no serious narrative that claims that climate change is the current cause of all problems. There is no serious narrative that can refute the obvious point that if climate chnage predictions play out, it will add greatly to all existing problems.
Moreover, we can tackle multiple problems concurrently, no need to make it appear we can only ever do one thing. And as it so happens, climate change tends to correlate extremely well with war and famine. It certainly appears a climate solution is going to help many other big problems along as well.