That's why I'm wondering why Russia doesn't consider weapon suppliers being at war with them.

Probably because Russia doesn't want a nuclear war.

Russia can’t do anything outside of nuclear war. They’re weak and poor.

I doubt it. Ukraine is very well armed at this point. They can resist for a very very long time. If not do better without any further support.

But regardless that’s not the question. Let’s say Russia just rolls a 20 and does far better than is rationally possible, taking Odessa and much of the east rapidly. How does that change the energy situation? Let’s say Russia captures all of Ukraine and gets its genocidal wishes. Does that change anything? Are they really gonna say “well the war is over so let’s resume gas purchases”?

I think no.

well. hmm. I wonder if shareholders of large German industrial groups think the same.

If Russia secures Odessa and Eastern Ukraine and forces a 'reasonable' peace deal on Ukraine while keeping their "genocidal wishes" to a minimum, then yes I unfortunately see this whole thing being forgotten and forgiven by the EU in short order and gas purchases resuming quickly.

As long as Ukraine has plenty of anti ship capabilities I don't see Russia even blinking towards Odessa cause they know any ship with in range will be sunk and they don't want that.

In the fantasy world where Russia steam rolls Ukraine and also stops being evil, and Ukrainians just roll over and take it, sure maybe.