Managers should be honing the hiring process. If your team is clear about what they're looking for and thoughtful about how to get at it, you should be able to figure out if a candidate is a good team and technical fit in a couple of hours.

Not really. You can do your best to figure it out, but (almost) every single candidate will be trying to game the interview to get hired at all costs. No matter if I'm interested in the job or just treating it as a throwaway practice interview, I will always say exactly what I think the interviewer wants to hear in order to hire me. This doesn't necessarily correlate with what will actually happen in reality.

Perhaps. But even with the current 6+ hours everyone medium size or larger still makes a fair number of bad hires. Between driving the false positive rate down and driving the time to decision down the value maximizing next move seems to be spending even more effort on the false positive rate.

It's a false assumption to assume that more interviews is going to drive the false positive rate down. Increased volume or difficulty are not the keys to driving the false positive rate down. Better preparation is the key to driving the false positive rate down. Your team has to be crystal clear about what they are looking for in a candidate. That will allow you to create better job descriptions and create better interview questions and processes.

Increasing the difficulty and frequency of interviews is a bandage for bad processes. It's also going to increase your false negative rate. In a job market like this, you just can't afford to do that.

Maybe this is the honed hiring process.

Choice two: get a job