> It's also become completely clear that the delta variant can (and will) both a) infect and b) spread in the vaccinated population.
It isn't clear at all that delta breakthrough infections result in superspreading. There are documented cases of transmission chains of breakthrough infections, but I haven't seen any instances of single individuals with breakthrough infections creating superspreading events. By preventing the worst symptoms and reducing the amount of viable virus and duration of breakthrough infections, transmission is almost certainly reduced by some amount. It may be a substantial amount. Literally nobody knows. People are assuming that since transmission isn't reduced to zero that we have to assume it isn't reduced at all, which is almost certainly false.
> It isn't clear at all that delta breakthrough infections result in superspreading.
The party in Münster that's making headlines over here is being called a superspreading event.[0] The number of confirmed infections has now risen to 83.
> transmission is almost certainly reduced by some amount. It may be a substantial amount. Literally nobody knows
If no-one knows, is the phrase "almost certain" appropriate?
We know for certain that the disease course in breakthrough infections is shorter and milder. Yes, it is almost certain that transmission would be reduced.
And the Münster party doesn't have adequate contact tracing at all. That could be one unvaccinated person with forged or lacking credentials that infected everyone else. They don't know who the index case or index cases were. At least 28 of the affected people haven't submitted proof of vaccination, and if the person who caused the outbreak knew they were breaking rules and got sick they may have avoided getting tested and might not even be in the 83 known cases.
It isn't clear at all that delta breakthrough infections result in superspreading. There are documented cases of transmission chains of breakthrough infections, but I haven't seen any instances of single individuals with breakthrough infections creating superspreading events. By preventing the worst symptoms and reducing the amount of viable virus and duration of breakthrough infections, transmission is almost certainly reduced by some amount. It may be a substantial amount. Literally nobody knows. People are assuming that since transmission isn't reduced to zero that we have to assume it isn't reduced at all, which is almost certainly false.