I suspect under the current model, Northern Ireland, and perhaps also Scotland, are untenable as parts of the Union. Northern Ireland is a political chimera that only existed in peace because you could pretend there is one Ireland under EU membership.
I think as soon as Brexit pinches for good, NI and Scotland, both of which voted to remain in the EU, are out. Let’s just hope there isn’t another civil war in it.
Scotland has far greater trade with the rest of Great Britain than with the EU, so it would be in their interests to remain in the British internal market and customs territory even if they gain political independence.[1][2] Northern Ireland remains in the EU Single Market, so the previous pretense of a unified Ireland within the EU can continue.[3]
> Scotland has far greater trade with the rest of Great Britain than with the EU, so it would be in their interests to remain in the British internal market and customs territory
The UK has far greater trade with the rest of the EU than with the rest of the world, so it would be in their interest to remain in the Single Market and Custom Union.
I've always found it quite funny when English make this argument about Scotland. Particularly as the last independence referendum was won by the unionist side with a razor-thin margin, under the premises that the way for Scotland to stay in the EU was to stay in the UK. How is it that English nationalists are allowed to be unreasonable, but Scottish should not?
Brexit was an emotional issue, and I think this would be the same. 68% of Scots voted against Brexit, but the London government ignored that and piled ahead with fairly hard Brexit. Even the fishing industry, the prized jewel in the crown, got pretty screwed by Brexit.
I don’t think the Irish arrangement is workable in practice. It’s trying to fit a square peg in a keg of dynamite. The Irish Protocol effectively puts it outside the British economic zone, since trade with Britain is effectively import and export, going thru customs and enormous red tape. Meanwhile, Ireland proper is just across the field.
I think Northern Ireland will make it to its centenary but not much beyond.
I think as soon as Brexit pinches for good, NI and Scotland, both of which voted to remain in the EU, are out. Let’s just hope there isn’t another civil war in it.