A recession is already guaranteed as it by definition is 2 consecutive quarters of contractionary gdp. Q1 and Q2 will both see negative growth. The real question here is when it will bottom and how quick the bounce back will be. So far the means of production have not been affected in manner that will permanently reduce their productivity. However the longer this healthcare crisis goes on the more likely that is to change. Right now it looks very likely that we are able to get people back to work fairly soon, especially now that testing capacity is ramping up so that resources are more efficiently allocated to mitigate the spread and mortality rate of this disease. Note this does not require a cure, but rather a rate of infection that does not overwhelm our healthcare systems, which is near term very solvable.