I'm still trying to understand why Japan's numbers are so low. You can argue they aren't testing but if the infection rate is similar then the death rate should be similar was well regardless of testing or not.
They aren't staying home. Restaurants, bars, and events are still open. Trains are still packed at rush hour. Festivals are still happening. They're planning on starting school in April.
I can only see a few possibilities
(1) the numbers are false and Japan's death rate is going to accelerate
(2) the numbers are true but it's still coming
(3) Something about Japanese culture already limits the spread.
I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks. Japanese are also known to go to work sick, go to cafes sick, visit friends and family sick. Places are crowded. Open and over crowded offices everywhere.
(4) Something about Japanese genetics makes them less likely to have a strong reaction
I have no idea how to tell which of those it is except to see where they are in a few weeks. If the death rate rises it was (1) or (2). If not then it must be (3) or (4)?
Here's their latest graph. The 2 shallow lines at the bottom are Singapore (bottom) and Japan (2nd from bottom). The rest are Italy, Spain, Germany, France going left to right at the top.
> "I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks."
Substandard masks are better than no masks, and many people wearing masks is better than few people wearing masks. These are not "all or nothing" matters.
A surgical mask may also do more to prevent a contagious person from spreading the virus (than to keep a healthy person from getting it) because it stops droplets close to the mouth before they aerosolize.
I think the numbers are real. Shanghai is already taking Japan off high alert list and you can be sure they are very cautious. Since they monitor and even quarantine travellers they should have the data.
I am also confused by Japan's situation. The one thing that I don't think Japan can fake is the death rate. As long as the death rate does not significantly rise, somehow Japan is keeping control of the virus without the significant changes to life that were necessary in other places.
One useful "sanity check" for countries under testing is to check the records of imported cases from countries doing rigorous contact tracing and publishing their data. So far, Singapore has 2 confirmed cases arising from Japanese travellers and Taiwan has 1:
This is vs the ~110 British cases and ~50 American cases the two countries have seen collectively.
Flight volume from Japan to both countries is normally quite substantial so this is evidence to suggest that Japan's case is not low solely due to undertesting.
> "I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks."
This is a very western belief. Why do we continue to think that asians wearing masks are stupid?
Most importantly, say masks prevent 50% of transmission, and the majority of transmission is via the air (highly plausible), then that would mean drastically less transmission.
Even an N20 mask that reduces risk by 20% would make a huge difference to a population.
It is my prediction that masks are the single most effective means of dealing with the virus at present. Japan’s low infection rates are because they wear masks.
Wearing a bandanna over your mouth and nose just makes sense.
A DIY mask made from a common cotton t-shirt is approximately N70. This article breaks down the effectiveness and breathability of different materials.
I certainly didn't say asians wearing masks was stupid. My implication is they are not effective for either COVID-19 nor cold or Flu viruses. Japanese don't wear N20 masks. They basically wear a piece of cloth that seals no where.
If everyone wears masks that reduce droplet exhalation, that helps, even if a mask didn’t help prevent inhalation of droplets. I chose the words “droplet transmission” carefully.
> less than 50% wear them.
I looked a photo taken in Japan today - certainly looks like more than 50% to me - but hard to get facts on and I only looked at the first photo I could find.
> The majority of people wearing masks in Japan are for hay fever.
I.e. the mask is worn to reduce inhalation of small particles: surely you are contradicting yourself (you say they “seal nowhere” you are implying that they have no effect and that anyone using one for hayfever is mistaken).
They aren't staying home. Restaurants, bars, and events are still open. Trains are still packed at rush hour. Festivals are still happening. They're planning on starting school in April.
I can only see a few possibilities
(1) the numbers are false and Japan's death rate is going to accelerate
(2) the numbers are true but it's still coming
(3) Something about Japanese culture already limits the spread.
I don't believe this one. Japanese might wear masks but not all of them wear masks and they are not N95 masks. Japanese are also known to go to work sick, go to cafes sick, visit friends and family sick. Places are crowded. Open and over crowded offices everywhere.
(4) Something about Japanese genetics makes them less likely to have a strong reaction
I have no idea how to tell which of those it is except to see where they are in a few weeks. If the death rate rises it was (1) or (2). If not then it must be (3) or (4)?
Here's their latest graph. The 2 shallow lines at the bottom are Singapore (bottom) and Japan (2nd from bottom). The rest are Italy, Spain, Germany, France going left to right at the top.
https://rpr.c.yimg.jp/im_sigg.R1UwQuI2tgBhV1fzJ5o7A---x799-n...