If past history is anything to go by they will support "moderate and conservative" status quo politicians until the point where the people have given up on them and started seeking more radical change - from ever more extreme versions of the right and the left.
At that point the ultrawealthy will seek to form an alliance with the growing popularity of the far right and seek to annihilate the left. This is simple self preservation. The far left will, after all, seek to destroy billionaires whereas the far right will seek out easier targets who look/sound different (muslims, immigrants, jews, gays, people of color, etc.).
The point where things start to become terrifying will be the point where billionaires give up on status quo politicians and start to throw their weight behind the far right. That's when the far right switch from being a bunch of racist, loser skinhead misfits into a well funded, slick and violent ultranationalist nightmare.
As far as I can tell, the current weimaresque neoliberal age is sputtering to a close and we're seeing the beginnings of this pattern re-emerging.
Also, frankly, the attempt to make it seem like the “left” has a monopoly on “people of color” and “immigrants” is offensive. Trump got almost 30% of the Hispanic vote, and it’s not because of the lovely things he said about Hispanic people. Abbott got over 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas.
The idea that billionaires are going to form a coalition with nazis to oppress “people of color” is a leftist fever dream.
I would say the ultrawealthy’s cooption of the Democratic Party, moving it away from anything like a class-based politics, has actually been one of the more effective forms of undermining and destroying the left.
+1 I almost totally agree with you. We may differ in opinion somewhat because I think that both the DNC and RNC cater to the ultra wealthy, and the democrat and republican machines compete to get votes and more support from the ultra wealthy by both doing anything the ultra wealthy want them to.
For the Democrats, I am not talking about AOC and Bernie Sanders (who will always be demonized in the media) but referring to most democratic politicians (and Republicans, of course) who bend over backwards to protect corporate interests.
AOC isn't anti-wealth, she is anti-greed, and with good reason, because greedy people are psychopaths. If you align your MO with hers, you'll be just fine, even as an ultra wealthy.
Currently, the billionaires in this country are split pretty much equally between the two sides, the same way the country is split pretty much equally. They are a good representation of the society we created here. While many on HN know that model is flawed, unsustainable, and that we need to try something new, we also know that dinosaurs have a hard them to let go. The movie, music, and video game industries are example of groups led by greedy dinosaurs who resisted changes brought by the internet.
With AOC, we should be promoting and rewarding community success, as opposed to that of an individual like we do with the current pseudo-merit travesty system that we have. I do not see how this conflict with being highly profitable. I actually think that more people would be more motivated and more profitable with a more inclusive system.
You saw it take hold in 2016. Obama got the populist votes, and then Trump did. People wonder how the same people could vote for both, the common thread is populism.
The OP is talking about the future, your political demographic numbers are the present.
For example, the Republican Party used to enjoy the majority of the black vote, but this shifted towards the Democrats during the latter half of the 20th century. Likewise, prior to 9/11, the Republican Party enjoyed the majority of Muslim voters, who shifted their support leftward in the following decade.
As for the Democrats, they used to have much stronger support from the white working class, but this once reliable voting bloc started eroding away from them since the 1970s.
The sustained economic prosperity of the post war years in the US mainstreamed market liberalism for Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers, giving birth to “neoliberalism”, rejecting their parent’s depression-era “new deal Democrats” skepticism of unfettered market capitalism.
Political demographics aren’t set in stone. They will change with events of the nation.
Precisely. The democratic party would be weimaresque almost to a fault under Clinton or Biden, just as it was under Obama.
If AOC, Sanders and Warren took the reins of the party, they'd not only lose all support from billionaires, they'd go into vicious attack mode, funding whomever they thought could defeat them - both inside and outside the party.
I also wouldn't want to presuppose who the "other" might end up being. The far right might very well embrace Jews, Hispanics and Blacks while they turn on immigrants and muslims. But, there will be an "other" and their "otherness" will become a bigger and bigger deal over time.
Given that Warren has spent much of her recent campaign hedging away from Medicare for All, defending the existence of billionaires, and coordinating with the Clintons, I think actually the billionaires would be just fine with her.
Warren should have stuck to her guns because this is not going to work. They’re not going to forgive her.
I can’t find the article, but there was a story during the run-up to the 2012 election covering wealthy donors who switched to Romney in 2012. They interviewed one guy and his entire motivation for dropping support for Obama was, I kid you not, Obama telling him at a White House party in 2010 that he hadn’t gotten around to reading his self-published book yet. The donor thought it was really insulting that after all the money he gave Obama he hadn’t read his crappy book. This is especially absurd when you consider Obama was in the midst of battling the massive financial collapse and two foreign wars.
This is why I think bargaining with billionaires is dangerous. You’re never going to be good enough for them.
> Last July, before he had written the [harshly critical] letter [about Obama], Cooperman was invited to the White House for a reception to honor wealthy philanthropists who had signed Bill and Melinda Gates and Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge, promising to donate at least fifty per cent of their net worth to charity. At the event, Cooperman handed the President two copies of “Inspired: My Life (So Far) in Poems,” a self-published book written by Courtney Cooperman, his fourteen-year-old granddaughter. Cooperman was surprised that the President didn’t send him a thank-you note or that Malia and Sasha Obama, for whom the books were intended as a gift and to whom Courtney wrote a separate letter, didn’t write to Courtney. (After Cooperman grumbled to a few friends, including Cory Booker, the mayor of Newark, Michelle Obama did write. Booker, who was also a recipient of Courtney’s book, promptly wrote her “a very nice note,” Cooperman said.)
> For those unfamiliar with Cooperman’s history of bitching and moaning, this isn’t the first time he’s complained about being treated just sooo unfairly by a politician. During the Obama years, he claimed that the president’s description of Wall Street leaders as “fat cat bankers”—made in the immediate wake of the financial crisis before he would go on to be extremely business friendly—was encouraging “class warfare,” and that Obama’s “polarizing tone” was “cleaving a widening gulf…between the downtrodden and those best positioned to help them,” i.e. the rich. Speaking of tones, Cooperman, like many of his brethren, chose to liken Obama to Adolf Hitler, and also got his knickers in a major twist over the fact that the president had the audacity not to write a thank-you note to Cooperman’s 14-year-old granddaughter for her unsolicited book of poems. So Liz Warren better shape up, and fast.
> That’s a weird characterization, given that the trend has been in the opposite direction:...
I don't think you've adequately supported that criticism.
The article you're citing discusses the "top 4%" of income earners. That's a very different thing to "billionaires" of which there are 607 [Edit: in the USA].
The photo of a Clinton is also a prime example of left party gone center-right based on support from the billionaires and the (rest of the 4%).
Since the US has a FPTP system, the first layer of fighting is for both party nominations and is poor majority against (centrist) rich minority, which would have a clearer outcome if money in politics had clearer rules.
Unfortunate reality is that inciting hatred towards, let's call them "The Other", is just good political business in a representative democracy. You have to get elected in a representative democracy. Which means people need to vote for you. Tribalism, for all it's faults, can accomplish one task exceedingly well, and that's getting people to vote for you.
Doesn't make you racist or a bad person to concede, in a debate, that which really is just millennia on millennia of human evolutionary biology at work. Does it make politicians irresponsible when they employ tribalism? Absolutely. No question. But it's abundantly clear the left and the right employ that strategy all the time.
Which is why I said the politicians are irresponsible. When I said you're not a bad person if you concede that politicians employ tribalist strategies, I was talking about the commenters on this forum not the politicians themselves.
Many commenters here appear to be testing the extents of mental flexibility in order to render their side of the political divide innocent of tribalism. I assume they are doing so because they believe conceding that fact is tantamount to being a racist. My assertion is that conceding this fact is not racist, it's just laying out contemporary political realities. It's just laying out behavioral evolution. We, as in "our society", put the screws to certain groups, because in our society doing so delivers votes. When it no longer delivers votes, maybe we won't do it? But for now, it's just how the game is played.
And all political sides play this game. It's just that different political sides put the screws to different "tribal" groups. And some tribes have the rare misfortune of coming under pressure by all political sides.
Nixon is obviously a good example of a politician who used tribalism to his benefit. I don't argue that at all. Because, again, conceding that doesn't make me a bad person or a racist. Just makes me a guy stating a fact.
>My assertion is that conceding this fact is not racist, it's just laying out contemporary political realities
Conceding the fact and still voting for them is. Yes, this is rampant on "both sides." It is still morally repugnant, and it continues because it doesn't cost them enough votes.
Political realities exist because people accept them.
> It’s an easy story to believe, but this year two political scientists called it into question. In their book “The End of Southern Exceptionalism,” Richard Johnston of the University of Pennsylvania and Byron Shafer of the University of Wisconsin argue that the shift in the South from Democratic to Republican was overwhelmingly a question not of race but of economic growth.
More important, that alliance is already mathematically impossible. Trump only won by courting blue collar whites and a critical mass of conservative people of color. By 2050, Hispanic people will comprise 30% of the population. To ratchet up the racism while still managing to win elections (you can’t “annihilate” anyone without having political power), the right would have to pull in almost all white Democrats. But those are the most liberal group in the entire electorate, and a big chunk of the electorate’s socialists.
The mathematics of the situation is that there are billionaires, and 10-20% of the population that are riding the wave behind them. (These folks are disproportionately urban and suburban white people, and also disproportionately liberal.) There is no way to build a coalition with those people that involves scapegoating fully half the population that comprises people of color and immigrants.
Personally, I would be really unsurprised to see the hispanic vote start to match the traditional "bible belt" vote in the next few decades. That might be republican, it might be something else - but the idea of a conservative catholic demographic voting similarly to another conservative christian demographic makes a lot of sense to me.
>There is no way to build a coalition with those people that involves scapegoating fully half the population that comprises people of color and immigrants.
You can limit people of color's access to the ballot box and turn away immigrants. Like rich people have regularly done for most of this countries existence.
Why did Trump get 30% of the Hispanic vote? In South Florida, Hispanics love him (yet he can famously be heard talking about building a wall, which would have kept them and their family out)
Hispanics in South Florida (or their ancestors) came by sea, not land. A wall wouldn’t have kept them out.
Despite US culture’s obsession with slotting people into racial categories like “Hispanic”, Cubans in Florida actually have very little in common with Mexicans and Mexican-Americans in California, Texas and the Southwest.
Excuse my ignorance but, if South Florida had a wall, couldn't people not get in by sea? I know Trump was not discussing adding a wall to anything other than the southern border. I just felt that the premise of "I want to keep Hispanics from entering the country" would apply to people coming by sea as well.
Are you asking if, theoretically, a wall could be built in the sea to keep Cubans from reaching Florida?
Whether that’s the case or not, I’m not sure how it’s relevant to the discussion of who Florida Cubans align with politically, since it hasn’t been proposed or discussed by Trump or anyone else.
I'm sure there are as many reasons as people, but I would guess one common thread might be that the ones who came here legally resent the ones that broke the law to come here.
Perhaps because news media, created by people no less fallible than you and I, are intent on casting him and his supporters in a certain light. Many directing this will claim fears, some real, some imagined. Personally, I'm more disturbed by the implication behind the congratulatory applause they gave at his predecessor's send off from the final Whitehouse correspondents dinner.
Hispanics in South Florida are a very different group from Hispanics in the US generally. The typical Hispanic in the US context is a poor migrant from Mexico. The typical Hispanic in Florida is a rich refugee from Cuba.
Is there any particular reason to conceive of these people as belonging to the same interest group(s)? No. Do they even like each other? No.
South Florida is a bit of an unusual case. Cubans, understandably, are suspicious of socialism and really love Ronald Reagan. Republicans tend to benefit from these things.
> Also, frankly, the attempt to make it seem like the “left” has a monopoly on “people of color” and “immigrants” is offensive. Trump got almost 30% of the Hispanic vote, and it’s not because of the lovely things he said about Hispanic people. Abbott got over 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas. The idea that billionaires are going to form a coalition with nazis to oppress “people of color” is a leftist fever dream.
That’s not what the parent said, they said that the right scapegoats various minority groups as a way of dividing the lower classes and bringing segments of them into alliance with itself. It’s true that fascistic scapegoating doesn’t operate along standard US racial frames, but not that the right won’t resort to them.
The other thing you’re eliding is the incoherent tribalism inherent to fascist ideologies. Since they have no real commitment to meaning or truth, all it takes is identification with their precepts and a particular authoritarian manifestation to adhere to them.
Fever dreams is how they operate. They portray their outgroup as Saturday morning cartoon villains and then they start digging mass graves.
Pytester: If you're in the Bay Area, please get lunch with me. You are insanely bigoted and hateful against conservatives. Have you talked to a real conservative in the last five years? I have never seen such hate-filled tripe on HN.
The US Democritic Party is a very far cry from "the left"; you only have to look at the policies of the biggest candidates (perhaps with the exception of Sanders) to see that. The theory of the Overton Window captures this quite well, as do the history of the social democratic parties in Europe and later the US. GP's point is primarily historical, and as such in Nazi Germany "the left" would absolutely refer to the Marxist parties, the parties in support of the German Revolution, etc. This has actually been noticed as early as the 60s, and perhaps even earlier. From Marcuse's One-Dimensional Man:
>The British Labor Party, whose leaders compete with their Con-servative counterparts in advancing national interests, is hard put to save even a modest program of partial nationalization. In West Germany, which has outlawed the Communist Party, the Social Democratic Party, having officially rejected its Marxist programs, is convincingly proving its respectability. This is the situation in
the leading industrial countries of the West. In the East, the gradual reduction of direct political controls testifies to increas-ing reliance on the effectiveness of technological controls as instruments of domination. As for the strong Communist parties in France and Italy, they bear witness to the general trend of circumstances by adhering to a minimum program which shelves the revolutionary seizure of power and complies with the rules of the parliamentary game.
From a UK perspective the USA has two parties of the right, varying only in degree. :)
The UK Labour Party didn't really cease being of the left and away from nationalisation until 1983, which started the march to being "Tory Lite" of Blair's New Labour. [1]
Around 1980 the centrist people split away from the party to form the SDP (they would much later merge with the liberals to become the LibDems).
What killed the left was "the longest suicide note in history" - Michael Foot's 1983 Election Manifesto. 1983 was the early election that Thatcher used to cash in the Falklands dividend. The Tories were on course for a major loss, or at best scrape a hung parliament prior to the Falklands, after they got a doubled majority and the pattern of the rest of the decade was set. No Labour manifesto policies could have answered that. Yet between that and the SDP it started the journey to Blairism, and almost destruction of the party.
Brexit may end up doing similar to the Tory party - they've kicked many of their moderates. Depending what the December election brings, it could get ugly... Bring popcorn.
[1] OK, if you want to be pedantic, the IMF loan Healey got in 1974, and subsequent IMF supervision kicked them toward the centre -- temporarily. Everyone remembers it was Healey -- no one remembers the negotiations started the moment they got elected because the Tories left no public finances, and of course there was that minor oil crisis. :)
It’s a way for Cruz to signal membership as part of the large minority of Hispanic Americans who are religious, anti-socialist, and have conservative views on abortion, crime, drugs, etc.
It’s a shrewd way to stake out and define a distinct identity for minorities who lean conservative. Look at Sajid Javid in the U.K. (where the Tories are in the verge of pulling in the majority of the Indian vote): https://www.politico.eu/article/conservatives-lure-south-asi...
> “Most ethnic minorities believe in the Conservative values of family, self-reliance and aspiration.”
> If past history is anything to go by they will support "moderate and conservative" status quo politicians until the point where the people have given up on them and started seeking more radical change - from ever more extreme versions of the right and the left.
Could you point to some reading that would help one become educated on this past history?
Robert Paxton’s Anatomy of Facism (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/128540/the-anatomy-..., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Paxton#Fascism for a 5 min overview) is a fairly compact historical overview of the rise of fascism in post-WWI Europe, and analyses the historical/cultural/material factors for why facists came to power in Italy and Germany but not in eg England. It are mostly focuses on the dynamic cited in the grandparent comment re:
> At that point the ultrawealthy will seek to form an alliance with the growing popularity of the far right and seek to annihilate the left.
This is the third stage of Paxton’s five stages, the first three being:
> 1. Intellectual exploration, where disillusionment with popular democracy manifests itself in discussions of lost national vigor
> 2. Rooting, where a fascist movement, aided by political deadlock and polarization, becomes a player on the national stage
> 3. Arrival to power, where conservatives seeking to control rising leftist opposition invite fascists to share power
> Could you point to some reading that would help one become educated on this past history?
You might want to look into the Weimar Republic (the period of the region what is approx known as Germany between WWI and WWII). I'd start with Wikipedia. Babylon Berlin is a (fiction) series about that period. I guess you meant a historic book reading though.
I'd suggest reading up on the rise the Bolsheviks in Russia and Mao in China if you want to have some context for what these people are talking about. The Great Courses offers some great lectures on both subjects.
If one really wants to summon the Bolsheviks to explain fascism, it might as well be trough the Bavarian Soviet Republic [0].
Because that's some regularly overlooked context to the rise of Hitler, with his brand of fascism focused on anti-Bolshevik/communist sentiments which neatly played into racial theories [1] and stereotypes [2] that were rather common back then.
I think the parent is most likely referring to the rise of the Nazi party in the Weimar Republic, specifically the eventual support of wealthy industrialists once they became a major political party after 1929 and the role of some of the same in that outcome in the first place. You could also include other conservative interests (Prussian aristocrats, monarchists, the Army, etc.), all of whom thought they could use and co-opt the Nazi Party for various aims without much difficulty. Papen was so confident that he and his conservative majority in the cabinet would be able to control Hitler as chancellor that he declared to worried associates that "within two months we will have pushed Hitler so far in the corner that he'll squeak." Power would, or so the rationalizations went, calm Hitler and force him to become a more traditional politician.
That said, I'd caution against putting too much emphasis on the possible parallels, even as there's a lot to learn by looking at them. That initial bargain--or rather, series of bargains--was made under very unique circumstances that aren't really present today. Industrialists saw the threat of the Great Depression (both in terms of the destruction of their wealth through purely economic means as well as the political consequences of the depression) and the possible rise of a communist German state as existential threats to themselves and their society. Richard J. Evans' The Coming of The Third Reich touches on the sheer terror over the possibility of a communist revolution a bit and how it influenced Weimar politics, given the example of the Russian Revolution of 1917: it meant not only confiscation of property, but also torture and death on a massive scale. The failed revolution in Hungary, and the White Terror that followed it, also made it explicitly clear that even failed revolutions would have immense levels of political violence. Labor unions and political parties associated with them were easy to associate with this; it helps that they weren't exactly predisposed towards them in the first place for a variety of social and financial reasons. The Nazis capitalized on (and pushed) the fear of communist revolution, both with the public and traditional conservative interests. There was also a sort of normalization of the presence of paramilitary activities and violence in Weimar and their use by political parties; if one was so inclined, it was apparently possible at the time to rationalize the Nazis as just another populist movement that wouldn't translate into lasting political power, and could even be co-opted. You also had a lot of nostalgia for the Bismarckian past and a very unhealthy democracy in the Weimar Republic; as such there wasn't much interest in defending democracy, such as it was, by the end. It seems as if everyone figured it could be replaced with something "better" in their eyes.
As for the industrialists and the rise of the Nazi Party, I'd suggest Diarmuid Jeffreys's Hell's Cartel: IG Farben and the Making of Hitler's War Machine. It's not focused solely on the role of the firm in the Nazi's rise to power, but it covers it as part of a broader look at the company's history and what it eventually led to. Adam Tooze's excellent The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy is somewhat related, with regards to the relationship between the Nazi Party and rearmament efforts and the Nazi process of Gleichschaltung, or coordination, through which the Nazis established control of "social, political, and cultural organizations...according to Nazi ideology and policy."[0] There are a few other books that might be of interest, but I can't think of them at the moment
Great comment! A book I've (almost) finished recently that seems to generally fit your narrative is "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" by William L. Shirer.
I can't speak for its accuracy, but as a sidenote I found it fascinating and somewhat painful to read how the writer deals with homosexuality (quite negative). I suppose in its time this was a common enough sentiment, but it was still rather jarring.
You should start with the history of the Weimar Republic, as the parent indicated, and it’s slide into Nazism. Fascism is more multifaceted than this specific manifestation, but its circumstance most parallel our own age.
>will seek out easier targets who look/sound different (muslims, immigrants, jews, gays, people of color, etc.)
We assume the 1% is white, christian and male, but is it? And insofar as it isn't, I think it's unlikely that scapegoats will be picked in the traditional (e.g. racist) way. One non-racial scapegoat category be criminals -- the right is already successful scapegoating illegal immigrants for a remarkable variety of issues.
I think it's quite hard to pick out which groups will end up being the scapegoat du jour, although there are some hints. I think the hammer is much more likely to come down on Muslims than Jews in the west, for instance.
Whichever group it is, some wealthy people will probably get caught up in it and flee the country.
Much of the rest of the world is made of countries where people have been exploited long enough to not be able to fight back. The us is just starting to experience this, but unlike in ww2, there is no us to ...save the us. I think there will indeed be a growth in social and political tension, but the majority of the population quickly be put in its place.
I am very afraid of this. In a sense, we may be the country that is least able to fight back. Imagine the the U.S. military-industrial complex operating at full-strength with its sights set on the resistance, with the support of our world-class surveillance apparatus. What hope do we have against any of it? Without some hivemind-like ability to coordinate ourselves, we are probably pretty doomed. And surely if not, China and Russia will be waiting to take further advantage of a weakened U.S.A. in the event of any inroads made towards dethroning the existing regime. I fear they would be fairly successful.
IMO this is a good question. It's pretty tempting to hijack an existing infrastructure such as the US army to push back an unhappy people should they become an annoyance, and the US army is by most standards, pretty scary.
But I think the US has a few more steps before reaching that stage. Making sure people are obedient is a process that started long ago, by denying them healthcare, housing or education, unless they are disciplined enough to work and not to question the system; while regulating in favor of well entrenched oligarchy.
I think the best way to coordinate is by starting cultural trends. Sudden change and revolution almost never lead to anything, and if we look at the history of the US, it's "power" is exactly that: cultural change. The tech "class" is already attempting this, but I think the approach and message are wrong and don't resonate with enough people, to create something at the scale of the hippie era.
So the US really needs the US to save itself, but by developing an ever stronger middle class, and mechanisms to protect each other's health, while allowing for money to move around freely. And I think tech can be a part of that solution (no, I am not thinking encrypted chat, AI to hack the gov, or other non american kinds of weapons, but rather genuine solutions). The more power they have, the more they can keep the government in check.
I’m confused by the use of “weimaresque” here. The Weimar Republic has very different political and economic circumstances than recent America. It feels like a boogeyman.
I would rather expect them to continue the divide and rule tactics which has worked pretty well so far.
You don't have to form any alliances if you control both sides and you have the media and the lumpenproletariat to your disposal. In the worst case scenario, the working class will engage in an ethnic guerrilla warfare (thus making the state even weaker and easier to corrupt) rather that a revolution against the elites.
>The far left will, after all, seek to destroy billionaires whereas the far right will seek out easier targets who look/sound different
The far right's concern is those who seem different, but there is also an intersection between billionaires and those who seem different. >30% of the people on Forbes 400 are of Jewish ethnicity and the far-right loves to harp on about it.
It's funny you reference the 'neoliberal age' because in the 'pre-neoliberal age' totalitarian regimes were nationalistic and far right e.g. Nazi Germany. However, in this 'neoliberal age' the most totalitarian regimes are actually far left with noticeable examples being the PRC and DPRK. A far more concerning trend is the radicalization of far left ideology and the zero tolerance shown by its members. Cancel-culture is a symptom, lack of diversity in speakers on campus are a symptom. This isn't just me saying it, Dave Chappelle highlighted the cancel culture and Barack Obama has noted this trend on college campuses. Right-wing neonazi groups are on the fringe of society whereas left-wing ideology is mainstream culture.
> However, in this 'neoliberal age' the most totalitarian regimes are actually far left with noticeable examples being the PRC and DPRK.
While there is absolutely no denying that the PRC and DPRK are totalitarian regimes, many scholars of political economy and sociology would argue that they are simply totalitarian in a different way; for instance, one common theme is that the notion of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia has conditioned us to think of totalitarianism in a very specific way with specific consequences. The issue is that totalitarianism can acutally be conceived of in terms of totality, a concept critics of neoliberalism use a lot.
See the work of Herbert Marcuse, who, while before the time of neoliberalism, argued the notion of totality in the West, while quantitatively not as bad as the regimes you name, was still more pernicious in the fact that we don't consider them totalitarian. Orwell was somewhat of a break in this style of thinking, but now we conceive of totalitarianism as Orwellian rather than otherwise.
I have a comment here[0] with more about this. In short, we tend to start from the assumption that are own societies are not totalitarian because the totalitarianism is natural to us. But it's also a mistake to assume that there is a "view from nowhere" which can tell us which societies are tolatitarian and which are not.
> The point where things start to become terrifying will be the point where billionaires give up on status quo politicians and start to throw their weight behind the far right. That's when the far right switch from being a bunch of racist, loser skinhead misfits into a well funded, slick and violent ultranationalist nightmare.
Haven’t they already done through new forms of mass culture? Many of these “conservative intellectuals” are little more than bought and sold mouthpieces of the ruling class whose voices are then algorithmically targeted and boosted through platforms like YouTube and Facebook.
And in many cases, what they’re serving up is actually little more than warmed over Nazism. Few people, for example, know that hatred of trans people was something first cultivated by the Nazis, who claimed that their existence was a disease of “Talmudic abstraction” of gender from sex. [0]
How many of the “superstars” on the right have built a career on or parrot this kind of talk today?
I thought Nazis were leftist? I think your presumptions about left/right are heavily biased by modern US politics.
Abe Lincoln and the Union were "right" (republican),many of the modern GOPs initial members were free black people. Of course by 2019 standards everyone of that era is far right in the US.
You have to also consider that even now left/right can mean different things in different societies.
Here is one way to put it: billionaires will lie in bed with whoever has their best interest. The group that has their best interest is usually the group that can't acheive it's goals through democratic or other preestablished process. The popular side does not need them, and being popular means doing the bidding of the majority non-rich. If republicans are very popular,democrats will be in bed with billionaires to advance their agenda.
It is a simple economics of supply and demand. IMO, history actually shows how ideology means little compared to ability to weild power.
You like many have this Us vs Them attitude where you've been sociologically engineered to group yourself with certain groups,the same is happening to others. This makes divide and conquer very easy to all available hostile parties.
I think there are plenty of forces at work that desire the fall of the west and America's global dominance. Everyone knows that even if major nuclear powers unite,defeating america in nuclear or conventional war is very very hard and expensive. The best way to dismantle such a large and powerful enemy is from the inside out -- similar to what the wesr did to the USSR. The billionaires have money but money means nothing if you can't spend it and keep it. Nation states control billionaires and billionaires exert a lot of influence on nation states. The American lead liberal world order is not beneficial to nation states all over the world and it keeps getting worse from their perspective. Billionaires are good at moving their money elsewhere,the problem is America's reach is far. You can see how so many parties have to gain from the great american division. I think billionaires backed or encouraged by hostile nation states desire to instill division that can be used to control america and if it comes to it,destroy the west. Bear in mind this is just my opinionated analysis.
Someone with a beter insight: does that mean that I somehow is worse or better off? From where I stand, I hear/read a lot of criticism, but I’ve yet to see that Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, e.g., is going into my account and then steal my money which results me being in a worse position.
I am of the opinion that if we everyday feel resentment towards those who have more, that we are in itself creating a lesser condition for ourself. Whether that be mental illness, hate, or worse.
The idea is that one person gets a great deal of wealth from the creation of something that they were the most important in that creation. We would all agree that what Gates and Bezos acomplished was laudable and needs to be encouraged in society. However, in a different era Arthur Sloan (GM) or Henry Ford actually ended up with a lower percentage of the wealth of their companies. More of that wealth was distributed as opposed to concentrated in a founder or CEO. Did that discourage their excellence? I don't think so. Did it make a healthier society? I would argue yes.
> We would all agree that what Gates and Bezos acomplished was laudable and needs to be encouraged in society.
Absolutely not.
It’s a completely reasonably argument to assert that both men made the bulk of their outsized wealth via anti-competitive monopolistic behavior that was harmful to the markets they operated in.
Gates was in fact accused of this by the US Justice Department so it’s not exactly a fringe theory.
> We would all agree that what Gates and Bezos acomplished was laudable and needs to be encouraged in society.
Not necessarily. There are plenty of people who think that the growth of Microsoft and Amazon came from doing sketchy things that should not be repeated.
> We would all agree that what Gates and Bezos acomplished was laudable and needs to be encouraged in society.
I definitely don’t agree that either of these companies predatory tactics, and especially Amazon’s treatment of workers, is something that should be lauded or encouraged.
Did the wealth of car companies go to labor? Or did the wealth go to the venture capitalists (or whatever the venture capital equivalents of the day were)?
The real wealth that car companies created went to consumers in form of consumer surplus.
The automobile used to be a toy for millionaires, now even (American) minimum-wage workers can travel daily in comfortable, individual, climate-controlled vehicles capable of incredible speeds.
I would pay $100k for a ten-year-old Civic but I don't have to because the car companies work hard and compete with each other and have driven down costs and prices to the bare minimum.
Same for many of todays billionaires / huge corporations. They're generally not stealing from us, but creating enormous wealth for all of us in the form of consumer surplus with their desirable goods and services.
But are the billionaires the ones actually responsible for creating all that value? Is Bezos actually responsible for 10 000x the value of what Amazon produces than a worker? If Bezos didn't exist, there would be another "Bezos". He just happened to be there at the right time and do the right things. We discount all the effects that luck and society play in making a "Bezos". The company is what is providing that huge amount of value, not the person.
You have to apply your argument to yourself, which is "are you responsible for creating any of the value you create?" If you didn't exist there would be another you, so luck and society made you. But you know that is not true. You are where you are, and you can step away at any time.
People willing to work for less in countries other than America is where much of the consumer surplus in the past few decades has come from. As well as not needing people to work in the first place.
Henry Ford famously chose to pay his workers enough that they would be able to afford to buy his cars.
Also, I'm not sure that there was a meaningful equivalent to venture capitalists in that era, but I'm not at all confident enough in my history to state that with any weight.
I’m not going to address the larger question, because there has been a lot written about it by better writers than I, but there is this: Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, etc. have indeed reached into your pocket and taken money from you, assuming you are a tech worker. They did this via an anti poaching agreement. https://www.cnet.com/news/apple-google-others-settle-anti-po...
The Gates or Bezos don't have to get into your account to get you in a worse position. They simply have to pay less taxes, inherit more, pay relatively lower wages or increase rent on their properties.
It blows my mind that someone that makes more money than me, pays less taxes than me. Why? Well, I know why, but why is it like this? I don't care if my neighbor has more money than me, I care if the rules are the same.
We read that the wealthy are taxed at a lower tax bracket because most of their income doesn't come from a paycheck, but from investments which are taxed at a lower rate. I can never compete, because I do not have investments that would generate a return similar to my current salary. Unfair rules in my opinion.
You can start investing as little as $1000, and grow form that, maybe you can reach some relevant invested amount, or maybe you can reach a sensible amount and then pass that to your children for them to continue.
Also you can lose all, because investing is not easy.
I worded my original comment very ambiguously. I was not trying to claim that the rich pay less taxes than the poor. They obviously don't.
What I meant was: One way for rich people to get more at other peoples expense, that does not require what would legally considered stealing from you, is to have to pay less taxes than they previously had (by using legal ways to do it, or by being the beneficiary of changing laws).
The point is, there is a lot of way's for the rich to benefit at your expense, and hacking your bank account might just be the least practical.
It is extremely unlikely that you are paying more in taxes than any of the super rich. You are complaining about how the tax code treats wages vs investment/passive income.
The reality is (as of 2016) the top 1% pay 37% of the total income tax bill. The top 5% (income>198K) pay 58%. The top 10% 69.5%.
On the other hand, the bottom 90% pay 30% of the tax bill, the bottom 50% only 3%.
Which seems to make sense since the top 1% average over 39 times more income than the bottom 90 percent[1] and hold about 38% of all privately held wealth in the US[2].
>does that mean that I somehow is worse or better off?
try this thought experiment:
your neighbor has $10 and you have $1. the cost to keep a person sheltered, fed, and clothed is $3. your neighbor pays you $1 to do some task each month while making $10 from your labor. you can't afford the basics with the salary being offered. your neighbor, on the other hand, can afford the basics for themselves and also for you using the revenues generated from your labor -- and more! yet, they still only pay you $1, because if they paid you $3, they'd only be able to pay for their own consumption two times instead of three times. is this situation acceptable on the basis of the factors outlined in the experiment alone?
because that level of exploitation is a mere shadow of the scale of exploitation that the current crop of billionaires perform. and we haven't even started to talk abou tax dodging yet.
My thought is that if people are getting supremely wealthy off of other peoples labour (as well as trashing the environment) and we see this divide, then peoples labour is obviously undervalued.
They are not so much stealing money from your account, but the amount they put in looks like it could be a lot bigger?
I don’t know, but something is off, the way I see it.
The problem isn't that they're rich so much as that increasing numbers of people live at the beck and call of the health insurance industry and that there's not even any attempt to stem the tide of homelessness. So those in need of healthcare or housing are looking at someone like Bezos who "makes hundreds of dollars a second" and calling bullshit on the system they live in - can we blame them?
False. Per CBS Marketwatch " Amazon Chief Executive Jeff Bezos recorded total compensation of $1,681,840 in 2017, almost all of which is money paid for personal security — Bezos drew a salary of $81,840 and received no additional stock." which amounts to 5.3 cents per second.
You seem pretty clearly to be speaking of his networth which rises and falls with the price of AMZN shares. When friends/relatives ask 'how much do you make?' do you include unrealized gains on any investments you own?
You're not going to see your bank accounts empty. You're not even necessarily going to see anyone or anything you care about get hurt by the one percent.
However, when you want something done, when you believe in a cause, you're going to have a harder time than previous generations to exert pressure on the powers that be to make that happen. They will care less about your purchasing power or your vote than was the case for your parents or grandparents. Depending on what injustices you see in the world, you will probably have a harder time finding an organization with any real influence that you can join to make a difference.
This is the biggest problem with inequality; people are fixated on what they have, not on what's possible. The world will change, and everyone has a stake in what it changes into. It's a problem when it changes on the terms of just one group, a problem that of course will always be the case, but can be bigger or smaller. Right not, it's getting bigger.
It depends on whether they are being taxed appropriately on the wealth they have accumulated, then you could make an argument as to whether money is being stolen from you or not. Warren Buffet famously said that his secretary was paying a higher percentage of her income to taxes then he was. If that is the case, the middle class is subsidizing both the poor and the rich.
Why do such discussions on HN always end in some crude left vs. right fights?
Later addition because most answers say that this is normal for politics:
Usually on HN for other topics such a primitive black and white thinking is in the minority and will be laughed about or just ignored. Why not if it comes to politics?
The same is happening a lot in the media as well. The first step is to project the complex problem into 2D space. Then retrofit the arguments so that they fit the narrative. I suspect that somebody who consumes a lot of that type of media will have their reasoning process being influenced.
The engineering approach would try and decompose the problem without judgement. Then explore the tree of possibilities, apply weights on all the possible outcomes and then take the best possible route, knowing full well that an ideal doesn't exist.
I am sure it's possible to apply many more lenses to a problem, each of then bringing more richness and understanding to the world.
>The engineering approach would try and decompose the problem without judgement.
The whole point of the existence of poilitical economy and sociology is th at this kind of decomposition is very hard, if not impossible - without judgement implies that those who practice this kind of thinking, or engineering, are able to adopt a view from nowhere, but the fact is that these people belong to groups in society, they are personally affected by the outcome, and absolutely already have pre-existing interests. Furthermore, you automatically figure this as a kind of balancing game with weights, but this implies that the weighting can be done (how do you weigh two qualitative choices?) and further the utilitarian view that all that matters is the maximum weight. Both of these problems are why there is intense debate in moral theory regarding instrumental reason and consequentialism.
Weighting is certainly a difficult exercise. Even for engineers where the problems are more concrete, it often relies on building some sort of shared vision that is used to infer a future prediction. In fact most of the disagreements I see is when two engineers have a different view of the future. For sure, both quantitative and qualitative approaches are necessary to build a proper model.
Anyways, my point was that by looking at every argument by first placing it on a left vs right scale removes the interesting nuances that could be discussed. I don't know that the engineering approach is necessarily the best tool to solve social inequalities as this is not my topic at all.
Funny, I was just wondering how many "one percenters" there are on Hacker News -- it's certainly a place where a lot of aspiring one percenters hang out (I know: startup founders are likely more motivated by building something cool and useful but if it's a hit they'll be in the 1% and I'm rooting for more of y'all to make it!).
Because generally speaking, not taking a side on politics is a bad thing. This is a consensus among both the right and left. In essence, they want you to join their side and so all the discussion will be a presentation through the lens of their beliefs. And frankly, you should take a side. (hint: one side is better than the other)
Discussions in most places end with crude right and left fights. That is the politicization of everything, the hyper partisan thinking that dominates our psyches.
But usually on HN with other topics such a primitive black and white thinking is in the minority and will be laughed about or just ignored. Why not if it comes to politics?
if i had to guess (and it's a huge guess), it's because HN is mostly americans, and american politics are like sports -- if you like one side, you don't like the other.
which translates to this kind of black and white rhetoric.
it also doesn't help that since the 2016 elections, everything became even more polarized. nowadays, if you vote D and say you like some R policy, people will churn you (and this is valid the other way around too).
I haven't noticed any difference between American HN users and others in these respects. Also, HN's community is about 50% in the US, so perhaps not mostly Americans.
Quite. We see news articles on a daily basis proclaiming the solidarity of the US Congress.
Really this is such an unsubstantiated comment. No one carries a card for being a member of the “ruling class”. Instead people making this argument simply cherry-pick from diverse groups for their purposes and claim they all work/live/think the same: politicians, the rich, foreign interests, lobbyists, youth activists, corporations, media, far right fringe, etc.
Congress may get into petty squabbles over issues like farm subsidies or trans rights, but they are generally agreed on the status quo of the current United States economy. There is bipartisan support for unfettered corporate control over wide sectors of the economy and public resources.
I'm not saying that both sides are the same here. I'm saying that what Chuck Schumer wants for his class and what Mitch McConnell does are broadly the same. Chuck might pay lip service to his constituents by opposing tax increases, but at the end of the day both would still vote to increase the defense budget, vote against Medicare-for-All, vote against expansion of welfare and entitlements, vote against most things that would make life easier for the struggling majority in this country.
The exceptions, like Sanders, Warren, Ocasio-Cortez, etc., are just that, exceptions. We often forget just how ridiculous and absurd both Sanders and his positions were viewed in 2015 when he first entered the race.
The article seems to indicate that those gains are all paper money due to the huge inflation in the stock market. On paper they look richer, but they can't do much with their "money" anyway. I think a more rational measure of inequality is through the possession of "important" assets like real estate, lands, power (political influence, ...). Of course the real problem comes when the lower and middle class sells their real wealth for stocks at the top, and the 1 percenters sell them their paper gains for "important" assets.
You don't think equity in a company is an important asset?
Is wealth in a mortgage-free triplex appraised at $1MM today inequal to equities in $MSFT that is worth $1MM today? If so, in what way is the wealth of the stockholder less important or less valuable? I don't think we can be sure that the real estate is going to provide more growth over time. I'm not sure by what other means the real estate could be considered more important.
Note that a pretax income of ~$500,000 puts you in the 1 percenters league. So the type of investment value in my example is probably fairly realistic.
Yeah housing prices in a lot of areas have barely recovered to the last peak from 12 years ago (and housing equity has traditionally comprised most of the "middle class"'s wealth), while stocks are like at least double (not even including dividends).
Sigh. Journalists have forgotten how to talk about class.
"One-percenter" isn't a real thing. It's just math. There is absolutely nothing tying the 'one-percenter' class together. They're not banding together to make it so their kids have a straight run into the Ivy League. They're not trying to stay politically dominant by passing poll taxes.
One-percenters aren't doing that. The upper class is. And there's plenty of "one-percenters" that aren't part of the upper class, most notably tech workers.
Social classes each have their own institutions of which they dominate. They have industry segments in which they maintain presence. But apparently we can't talk about that anymore. Sadly it's probably less to do with anything more nefarious than the gutting of funding for journalism, so all the stories are getting lazier and lazier.
Working for a living is kinda a give-away. In a Fussellian socialized-class sense most tech folks probably come from upper-prole, middle, and upper-middle backgrounds, and the values of the tech crowd itself—the ones it tends to imprint on new members—are largely upper-middle.
> The upper class in modern societies is the social class composed of people who hold the highest social status, usually are the wealthiest members of society, and wield the greatest political power.
(Wikipedia, naturally)
If you just mean high income when you write upper-class, you’re not communicating clearly.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. That's 420,000/y. That's no ordinary tech worker, or even most extraordinary ones. You're a C-suite executive if you're making that kind of money, even in a ridiculous CoL area like SF.
L6 at Google pays $490,000 a year [0] and 90+ percent of first layer managers at GAFAM are L6 or above. While getting into GAFAM and becoming a manager isn't a stroll in the park, it definitely doesn't require you to be extraordinary.
In the metric of income in relation to the entire US population, sure. In regards to the ordinary tech worker in a ridiculous CoL area like SF, no it definitely does not require you to be extraordinary to join one of the higher paying companies and work your way into management.
Class isn't a function of income: if you exchange labor for money, you're working class. If your name is on a badge or a desk, you're working class. If your name is on a building and you make money primarily by investing capital and owning production, you're part of the bourgeoise.
There are only a few hundred billionaires in this country, and they didn't get that money by being paid a salary.
Of course there is a class difference between people at retirement age:
- Has enough wealth to pay for daily life with interest/dividends. Nearly all wealth sill be left to family+friends upon death. (Upper class)
- Has enough wealth to retire, drawing upon this wealth to survive. Must work late into life in order to leave a significant inheritance. (Middle class)
- Not enough wealth to survive without working or leave significant inheritance. Must rely on friends, family, or the state when unable to work in old age. (Lower class)
This entire thread is an example of why not to use frequently-misunderstood terms like "upper class". In most contexts "upper class" refers to social class like whether you come from aristocracy or multi-generational privilege, not necessarily economic status or wealth. The set of people who are A: upper class or B: wealthy overlap but are disjoint. There are upper class people who are not wealthy and there are wealthy people who are not upper class.
Is “yes” an unreasonable answer? They’re certainly not part of the stereotype, but neither is an IC tech worker, and I’d expect a retired person living off their investments would be pretty aligned with blue bloods on political and economic issues. Certainly they’d be opposed to any policy that’ll tank the value of their portfolio.
the people who started exchanging labor for money and today are billionaires, which "class" do they belong to?
What if you work and ALSO invest in another company?
What if you work 10 hours a day in your own company?
Once you amass capital, there's no need to apply any kind of effort? Capital is indestructible?
How many times should we try communism?
"There are only a few hundred billionaires in this country, and they didn't get that money by being paid a salary." A non trivial number of them actually did.
Source? I can't think of a single person with a net asset value in the billions that got there via cash every 2 weeks. It's always increases in equity value that get you there.
They got it as signup bonus + salary + bonuses. Eric Schmidt, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd blankfein, Sheryl Kara Sandberg, Roberto Goizueta,Steve Ballmer, Michael Eisner prob many others I do not remember Sundar Pichai will soon join that list
> Ballmer was offered a salary of $50,000 as well as 5-10% of the company.[17] When Microsoft was incorporated in 1981, Ballmer owned 8% of the company.
> While CEO of Microsoft in 2009, Ballmer earned a total compensation of $1,276,627, which included a base salary of $665,833, a cash bonus of $600,000, no stock or options, and other compensation of $10,794.
His billions came from the ~10% of the company he got when he started, not from his wages. This is closer to a co-founder than a typical employee.
Yeah, and that 421K number is across the entire US. 1%-er in California it’s over 500K. You can utilize Glassdoor to see that even looking at salaries at FAANG that is not an average experience. People in the top 10% bracket straight up believe they’re in the 1% when it suits their world view and they’re in the middle class when it suits a different component of their world view. It’s maddening.
That's the issue. Articles like this talk about the "1%", but they're trying to convince people that everyone in the 1% are Bill Gates or Jeff Besos.
If the top 1% is an household income of $475,116, and you have 2 working people, they each need to make $237,558
That's certainly a lot, but on the coasts, a college grad can get a $120k or more offer straight out of school. I've heard of much higher ones, but lets use this number.
So to be a 1%, you could simply have a couple where both techies that make twice as much as a new grad. That's not exactly far fetched, when you include equity at a public company.
Of course, these people likely spend 3-5k/month on housing, are paying 6 figure in student debt each, might be sending their toddlers to a day care or a private school and saving for said toddlers' college, and putting a bunch in equity to supplement their 401k and emergencies. Clearly way better off than most, but also probably having discussions as if they should eat out less often to save some money and if they really need 2 cars or not, because gas and maintenance is starting to add up.
So in a good (great even) place, but certainly not the same world as what comes to mind when people say "1 percenter". High income doesn't really mean upper class.
> So in a good (great even) place, but certainly not the same world as what comes to mind when people say "1 percenter".
Yes, it is.
> High income doesn't really mean upper class.
Yes it does. Making 10x the annual average family income makes you upper class. That’s what the words mean.
The cognitive dissonance you’re experiencing here is not that the rest of the world is confused about the obvious fact that the top 1% is way above average, it’s that you’re confused about where the average is.
"upper class" means whatever people use it to mean, hopefully something that's useful to the discussion at hand.
NFL players get paid very high salaries, but the average career is only three years. many of them blow through it and have only meager pensions and the aftermath of injuries to look forward to in their old age. are they "upper class" for the brief part of their life when they have the cash flow or just an edge case of the exploited worker?
> Yes it does. Making 10x the annual average family income makes you upper class. That’s what the words mean.
No that's not what the words mean.
Social class is what circle you run in. It's what kind of car you can see yourself driving. It's how you think about financial security. It's what rec activities you think about doing. It's how you get involved politically.
Income is only a tiny part of that equation. You can be upper class and dirt poor. And you can be lower class and have millions in the bank.
Don't use class to refer to wealth or income. These three concepts are totally different and can exist independently of each other.
It's not your fault you don't understand this. America failed you.
High income doesn't mean upper class as much as a large amount of wealth does.
There are many people who have modest incomes, but high wealth. Those people are upper class.
On the other hand, there are a small number of people with high income, but who have a lot of drains on their money (support a large family, donate a lot), and who I would not consider upper class because they do not have a large amount of wealth
The top 1% does not make such a small amount. The top 1% has a net worth of $18 million after accounting for loans and other debts, and an income north of 1.7million... And that's in 2013. It's even worse now.
We should be talking about net worth, not about income, or else people who pay themselves a salary of $1 but are billionaires are classed as "lower class", which is obviously nonsense.
That's tautological for you since you've decided that income is your determiner of class status, and I think this is more controversial than you accept.
My wife and I are income 1%ers, but we're also first-generation college graduates. We live in a city with a tremendously high cost-of-living, because it's where our jobs are. If we are lucky, we will inherit some small amount of equity in our parents homes. We have no political connections or clout. Our income is virtually 100% in the form of pay from our employers.
From your point of view, we're better candidates to be "upper class" than say, Andrew Cuomo, the Governor of New York (salary: ~$180K) despite the fact that Cuomo's father was also Governor of New York, he was married to a Kennedy, and he presided at Billy Joel's wedding to his fourth wife?
I do think there's an interesting question about whether income or wealth is the defining characteristic of upper class. Top 1% wealth is around $10m, which your typical 30 year old high-income tech worker won't have.
it's sort of a tautological question. "upper class" is just terminology; it means whatever is convenient shorthand for the discussion. you and I get to decide what the defining characteristic of "upper class" is for the rest of this thread.
that was a bit snarky so I'll expand a little. I think people typically use "upper class" to signify the highest echelon in the power structure of society. but there are a lot of ways to have power over others, and it doesn't map perfectly onto money. an influential media personality may have more influence than someone far richer but unknown to the public. someone with a high worth on paper might have liquidity issues that force them to be careful with their spending. you might be wealthy and politically connected, but excluded from certain social circles anyway.
Where should that threshold be? Does it move every year due to inflation?
I think a more reliable distinction would be whether a person's income predominantly comes from their labour, or whether it proedominantly comes from what they own.
No they aren’t. Making 400k puts you in the same class as someone making 80k. Both have to work for a living, and neither experiences real deprivation. Those are the two most salient factors.
If you have to work for a living you are not upper class, period.
Im most certainly not upper class, as I can't even afford to buy department store clothes or go out to eat more than once a week.
My expenses, due to my location, education, medical status and job, eat up a lot of my income. I'm VERY thrifty and am about 75% over the poverty line after job/education expenses. Throw in medical, transportation and the ridiculous housing costs and I can't even afford mcdonalds for breakfast.
So... you’ve made a bunch of choices about what to do and for how much many and then how to spend the huge amount of money that you subsequently get to decide how to spend, and mathematically speaking you cannot spend all of that money on all of those things and simultaneously buy a $100 pair of pants.
That can easily be true, but it’s so ludicrously far from what normal people mean when they say that they “can’t afford McDonald’s for breakfast” that I think it drives the point home pretty well.
You aren’t poor because you already spent your allowance.
The fact that people in the upper echelons of the global upper echelons of financial resources don’t “feel rich” because we have to make “financial decisions” only when we’ve already spent all of the rest of our money is exactly the problem.
This isn’t, like, an upper-class character flaw. There’s some kind of normal human scale insensitivity that makes it really hard to understand how much a dollar is worth to someone else.
But it seems like if you do the math, you should acknowledge that you genuinely are one of the people getting paid off by the pyramid scheme. If you still feel constrained in your options, it’s because everyone at every level feels that way, because the whole system is lubricated from top to bottom by a pervasive sense of personal insufficiency. And actual poverty is still a lot worse.
I wasnt trying to make some generalized comment about society. I was relaying my own personal situation as it's an example how how some (very few, likely) people can have a large disparity between gross and net income with little ethical choice in the matter.
I'm currently an educator in a high income area, teaching students of significant wealth. I make about 450k a year.
We are required to live within a specific radius of the campus, which significantly limits my housing choices to high income, low space options. I'm around the middle of housing costs among my peers, and I'm paying 5k a month for 600 sq/ft.
We are expected to provide all resources for our courses, as is fairly normal in the primary/secondary teaching profession. Resource costs are around 200k a year, and this is fairly common among the staff. We are expected to bear it based on the idea that we're "over compensated" for our position, and that this "gives us flexibility to provide tailored education experiences". Nonsense, but I do love the job.
Taxes and health insurance take a bit over 100k a year.
That puts me around 90k gross for a family of 4 (which I have). "Very low income" level for a family of for in my area us 58k. That puts me at 55% above the VLI line. My original estimate was 75%.
I have a significant medical issue that puts a financial burden on us in monthly prescription copays, plus 4 three month specialist checkups, plus the cost of 2 children.
I am NOT saying this is normal by any means. My single healthy peers live fairly well.
I also expect most people to think, "Just get a new job!", which is understandable. However if I were to move back to my previous southern US appointment, doing the exact same job, Id have less net income and not be working in such a cool place.
> Resource costs are around 200k a year, and this is fairly common among the staff.
That certainly explains everything. I'm curious where that money goes? If you're teaching a class of 30 students, you could buy each one a laptop and go on a two-week field trip with individual hotel rooms and still have 100k left from that budget.
I cant go into detail much because itd make it easy to google my place of employment.
We pay for trips, electronics, "lab kits", license fees, PPE, raw materials, rental fees for heavy equipment and due to the nature of the content we pay probably more than we should due to inflated costs related to the specialized nature of the topic and school contracts.
AND we pay sales tax on all of it, which isnt insignificant on already ridiculous costs.
Yes. I could certainly bring the costs down, but at the expense of the experience of the students.
I don't believe that is an ethical choice, even if the students are already extremely privileged.
I do struggle with this every few months though, it is a difficult concept to grapple with, but I always side with trying to provide the best educational experience that I can.
And FWIW, among the other instructors, my costs aren't even particularly high.
I have quite decent medical insurance, and copays still exist.
I dont want to discuss my medical costs directly, but the uninsured cash cost for my monthly medications is about 5.5k month. Insurance does help significantly, but the final cost is still greater than 10% of cash price.
Im not sure why it's difficult to grasp that the difference between gross and net income can be large for some job in some areas, but that is the case for a small number of individuals.
It is foreign to the vast majority of people that you would be making $400k per year of income but unable to afford a $5 breakfast as you say. I'm having some trouble with it too. When if you're paying $150k in taxes, have a $10k a month mortgage payment (about a $1.5M mortgage), and are making $5k a month in student loan payments, you have $70k left over. I suppose I could see your medical bills being so high that this is then a difficult pie to share with everyday expenses. But it's a lot of assumptions to get there.
Even if those number were reality, OP's claim that "I manage my money quite well" would be nonsense.
If your after-tax income is $250k and you're spending $130k on loans and medical expenses, it would be foolish to sign up for a mortgage that costs $120k per year.
Which is kind of the problem with measuring income as a proxy for wealth. It’s, as you note, rather transient.
What should be the focus is on the total wealth. Who controls the resources eating up all that income? And how much of that controls is concentrated into a few individuals?
What’s better? Next year the 1% grow 20% wealth and the rest grows 5%? Or next year the 1% lose 20% of their wealth while the rest lose 5% of their wealth?
In option 1, the pie is growing for all, but for the rich faster than for the rest. In option 2, all of us are poorer, but we are more equal.
I would prefer option 1, while I believe many on the left would prefer option 2 given the proposals to enact socialism and seize property from those who have it.
Inequality of resources ultimately destroys equality of opportunity. If some cannot afford to send their kids to an acceptable elementary school (no joke in parts of the US) and some can afford to buy a college, meritocracy is a myth.
If the choice were between no growth + equality and growth + no equality I too would choose growth. However, the period of the fastest economic growth in the US (1940-1950s) featured much higher taxes, much lower ratios between the highest and lowest paid, and much more economic equality. The idea that equality and growth are incompatible is unsupported dogma.
>However, the period of the fastest economic growth in the US (1940-1950s) featured much higher taxes, much lower ratios between the highest and lowest paid, and much more economic equality.
This is a much parroted line, but it needs to be pointed out just how exceptional of a time period the 1940s-1950s were in the history of the world. The US at this time was literally the only functioning industrialized economy left on earth. All of Europe, Russia, and Japan were left in ruins. China hadn't even remotely begun to industrialize. Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America's GDPs were totally negligible. If you wanted to buy anything beyond raw materials, it came from the US.
We live in a fundamentally different world now, where we must compete in a fully globalized economy. The US has succeeded at competing in high paid, high technology sectors, which by their nature have contributed to the inequality of incomes we now see.
> The US at this time was literally the only functioning industrialized economy left on earth. If you wanted to buy anything beyond raw materials, it came from the US.
Except for Australia, as manufacturing in Australia was still a thing then. And there were a few other developed nations that survived the war with their economies reasonably intact.
The USA wasn't a total global monopoly. Nor was international trade as common as it is now .
It seems willfully disingenuous to attribute the growth of the 40s and 50s to high taxes. The growth and the taxes were both due to the most brutal war in all of human history. It was a transformational event for the United States including so many variables that it would be basically impossible (not to mention undesirable) to replicate. Pointing to it and saying "we can just tax everyone one like then and things will be better" is like pointing at a nuclear explosion to warm your house.
I like how the replies to this chose to focus specifically on the random mid 20th century example and thus ignore the actual rhetoric, which was quite good.
I see almost nobody advocating for option 2 as you've described it. Not even the hard left.
So far as I can tell, the overwhelming drive from most people who hold a view on this, is that they want to be better off personally, they want those they care about to be better off, and ideally they'd like just about everyone to be better off who isn't already living a luxurious life, as long as that doesn't come at the cost of harming those they care about.
Option 1 is not happening - the pie isn't growing for all.
Not just economically. Civil rights taken away, freedom of movement taken away, xenophobic/racist commentary on the rise for now (not just online), children can't afford housing like their parents, work is less reliable, the hours when having to work multiple "gig" jobs are long, more people have to live in crappy shared housing, higher education is getting less affordable, you can't go anywhere without a feeling that both the state and economically powerful entities like your bank, politicians and health insurance are assessing your every action to decide how much to individually reward or punish you in the long run; that sort of thing is a shrinking of the pie as well. Even if you have lots of mobile phones and great internet, that doesn't mean life is unequivocally wealthier.
So, according to my theory, people see that whatever the "rich" are getting, it is coming at the cost of harming those they care about at the moment, so it's unacceptable. But they don't want anyone to be poorer, so they don't want option 2.
Because the economy doesn't just magically grow or shrink. It grows when entrepreneurs drive the growth with new and expanding businesses or technologists invent transformative technologies. But those people will earn an outsize chunk of the new value they create, otherwise they wouldn't take the risk trying to create the new value.
Growth comes from economic freedom, and economic freedom rewards people who create value. The only way to have the 1% not change and everyone else go up 5% would be crushing controls and oppression of the top 1%, but that lack of economic freedom would make the more general growth impossible. You would just get flight of capital and brain drain to a more economically free country.
People are inherently unequal in drive, intelligence, patience, work ethic, everything. The more economic freedom there is, the more unequal outcomes will be. The less economic freedom there is, the less unequal outcomes could potentially be, but there will be no growth or prosperity. So it seems the two choices are that we can have growth, but some people will gain more than others, or we can stagnate or shrink. I think it's magical thinking that we can just tax the successful into Oblivion and they will just keep working hard and nothing will go wrong.
I think you’re wrong actually. My hypothesis is that a sizable Georgian tax and a public dividend of the revenue has the potential to provide both freedom, growth and increased equality.
So seizing property is wrong but our current system of not providing living wages to large swaths of the population is ok? I’d rather fix the basic needs of the many before I worry about the whinging of the rich. There are intermediate options.
Your point of view might be changed by knowing more about the social cost of inequality (which we are all affected by), I suggest reading on Structural Violence and perhaps looking at this: https://sevenpillarsinstitute.org/consequences-economic-ineq...
Potentially, option 2 could result in greater purchasing power for people who are competing with the 1% for resources. For example, if someone wants to buy property in a location where it is being bought up by the 1%.
Is there a viable and realistic non-socialist strategy being proposed for helping in those sorts of situations?
Equality of opportunity to become rich and/or acquire lots of control is certainly not an inherently socialist concept. Arguably, it's not even allowed in true socialism.
The middle class (and lower class) has suffered tremendously from the lower cost of labor abroad and the ability to cheaply import goods and services. The upper class has benefited tremendously from the same.
Another thing that has decimated the middle class is the general collapse of family. Divorce is the greatest family wealth destroyer in America.
People who care especially about jobs for the lower and middle classes support trade and immigration restriction politics. This is exactly why certain midwest states handed Trump the election in 2016, whatever imperfect good they got from that. I've been to these places. People in rust belt towns with closed factories did not think that the Democrats were going to bring the jobs back.
If free trade improves the overall economy by making the very rich slightly wealthier, and destroying the jobs of everyone else, it is obviously not an unalloyed good, and perhaps not in the interests of most people. Similarly with mass immigration.
That is all true enough, but doesn't actually contradict my point. A number of cohort studies have reliably made the point that I did about divorce, and the increase of singleness and late singleness in the last few decades has seriously impacted middle class wealth formation.
>The middle class (and lower class) has suffered tremendously from the lower cost of labor abroad and the ability to cheaply import goods and services.
The middle class in China and India (which barely existed a few decades ago) has profited tremendously from this. It's a natural equalisation: why does a worker in America deserve a better standard of living than a worker in Indian or China when the latter is willing to work so much harder to pull his family out of abject, mud-hut poverty?
This idea that Chinese and Indians would be living in mud hut level poverty without blessing from the American capitalist class is an feel good manufactured narrative.
India has very little integration to global supply chains, they famously followed a consumption lead growth model - "We feed our people before others".
China duped the American capitalist class using the carrot of profits.
They could have easily bought the technology and know how from Europeans, but couldn't believe their luck when they found out how easy it was to make Washington sell it's industrial base.
You are free to reindustrialize at paying 45 dollars / hour to assembly line workers.
>The middle class (and lower class) has suffered tremendously from the lower cost of labor abroad and the ability to cheaply import goods and services. The upper class has benefited tremendously from the same.
This sounds right but is not very true. Look at the quality of living of lower income people, things like refrigerators, TVs, air conditioning, heaters, smartphones, cars, computers etc, and pretty much everything you can buy at walmart have dropped in price precisely because of the ability to cheaply import goods and services.
Things which cannot be or are not outsourced like college, doctors and hospitals are super expensive and unaffordable, and results not only in things like a saline bag costing hundreds of dollars instead of a couple. And this funnels money to the upper class e.g. doctors and college administrators from the lower classes, and results in inequality. Not to mention raising the income levels of other countries allows a lot of people in the US working for companies with a large overseas revenue component.
Do we actually disagree? The non-outsourcable stuff has inflated in price at the same time that the outsourcable stuff has deflated, and it has destroyed one group of Americans while enriching another, far smaller group.
Interesting that pension assets make up such a large portion of the 90-99% bracket. That must include self built retirement accounts, IRAs, 401ks, 403bs, etc., and not just traditional defined benefit pensions
Depends on the area. In the US, it’s about $425k a year. For the world though, it’s about $30k a year.
For wealth, the average of the one percent in the US is about $1.3 million. For the world, it depends on where you look, but it’s anywhere from $10 to 50k.
IMO, the problem is not their income; It’s that some billionaires literally hold more wealth than entire nations.
2) You have taken the bad analysis and made it even worse. The headline says 8 men own as much as half the world (as much as the bottom 50%). That does NOT mean they own half the world. Far far far from it. (EDIT: you fixed this part with your edit)
Anyway my point is that all these news article lump the top 1% together even though you can make similar headlines about just the top 0.1%, 0.01%, 0.001%, 0.0001%, 0.00001%, 0.000001%.
Does it materially change the conclusion whether it's 8, 26, 100, or 1000 billionares?
I am saying the top 1% is 77 million people and you can narrow that group down by a lot and still make the same headline of top X surpasses wealth of bottom Y.
That’s not the core idea he/she is expressing. The core idea is that selecting a certain wealth level or percentile to be outraged about is wholly arbitrary. And therefore it doesn’t make sense to cherry pick the 1%, and if the vague logic of what constitutes inappropriate wealth is to be used, it would make more sense to look at the billionaires than the 1%. The billionaires have incredible wealth per capita compared to the 1%, most of whom still have to actively plan for retirement and worry about financial security.
Personally I think the focus on the 1% is a bad tactic since it targets people who are everywhere all around us, whom their friends know to be talented or hard working or to have undertaken the stress of operating a small business or whatever. For that reason it does and will continue to come off as inappropriate/unfair/immature to demonize the 1%, and hell probably even the 0.1%. This is why Occupy Wall Street was so easily dismissed.
1) Personally I think that you have it exactly backwards. If you look at Western Europe and all the social services provided there, they don't do it by going after billionaire's money because there simply aren't enough of them. They do it by having significantly higher taxes on most above average incomes.
In the US, when we focus the discussion on the ultra rich and move it away from the merely well to do, we take the discussion away from what has to happen if we want things like single payer health care or vastly cheaper college education.
2) Also, for the record this is a little questionable:
compared to the 1%, most of whom still have to actively plan for retirement and worry about financial security
To be in the 1% of wealth you've got to have over 10 million dollars. If you've got that much on hand and you're all that worried about retirement you either can't do math or your idea of a comfortable retirement is quite lavish.
We don't just take the discussion away from what it will take to get what we want; we also either:
(a) implicitly constrain our notion of what is possible ("what is possible is what we can offset with a redistributive pay-for"), or
(b) in reckoning with the fact that billionaires can't (for instance) pay for single-payer health care, force ourselves to reject entirely the notion of accounting and economics (see MMT, which is a serious idea in academia but finds an entirely unserious expression in public policy).
Europe doesn't seem to have this problem; they seem simply to decide that everyone needs guaranteed-issue, subsidized, affordable health insurance (or a single payer), and then tax the middle class to pay for it.
One thing being a programmer has taught me is to understand a problem if you really want to fix it. Maybe one day I will do a deep dive in politics and economics. Then I could have real answers and better/more-informed discussions.
Looking at this now though I think, okay, there's more of us than them. Let's just take it and figure out how to redistribute it. But I know most of them are probably innocent and goood people. I suspect the real problem is our failed government. Does anyone have any idea how we can solve wealth inequality? Will it happen or will we keep slipping?
You just need to tweak the system to make accumulation a bit harder. Currently money attracts more money. It's not rocket science to implement a plan that means that any entity with lots of money needs to work a little harder to retain it and grow.
Rich people always say they are smarter and deserve the money. Well that's fine. They'll continue being smarter and continue being rich but it'll just be a bit harder for them. Seems fair to me.
P.S. Yes I think a small wealth tax is a good start. Little tweaks
What they do have is more luck, either by their location of birth or parentage, being in the right place at the right time, and so on. There's no outsized intrinsic merit to the wealthy, as much as members of that class would prefer to believe.
Taxing the lucky to spread the luck around seems like a reasonable and commendable approach.
That HBR article is poorly written and doesn’t support your comment. An example of poor quality - it mentions taller men are more likely to be CEOs, which implies causality but it offers no data or statistical analysis to support such a claim. A simple correlation may warrant investigation into causality but isn’t causal itself. Additionally that entire article is about CEOs and not “the rich”, which are two different categories. The CEO of a well-funded startup isn’t necessarily rich, for example.
Most wealthy people I’ve met may have had occasional luck but they’ve also had bad luck. But they are smarter, work harder (more intensely and longer hours), and put themselves in positions to encounter luck/opportunity with high frequency. By and large I’ve observed it to be a result of their innate traits and active decision making.
This recent cultural obsession with claiming that merit isn’t real and that meritocracies are a myth is itself a feel-good myth with little basis in reality. Every piece I’ve read with such claims either rests on dubious statistics or pontificates endlessly to ultimately state personal opinion.
They always start out small, and targeted only to the top x%. Then politicians realize it's easier to tweak the rules and make it apply to just a few more people than it would be to create a whole new tax. Introducing a small wealth tax is the start of a whole new class of taxes. See the history of income tax from a limited wartime thing to a huge a percentage of government revenue: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_tax_in_the_United_State...
I would argue that instead of a wealth tax, a more sensible option would be to look at all the sources of income for very wealthy people that are treated differently than earned income. For example, capital gains tax rates, tax shelters in real estate, and other ways to get around normal tax rates.
People respond to incentives. If you penalise savings and investment, you get less savings and investment, which in the long run makes everybody poorer.
The fact is that a good chunk of the population is terrible at impulse control and will just spend however much they have, regardless of what they earn. If you take money from investors and give it to these people, they'll just consume it all. Like how the majority of lottery winners end up blowing through all their money.
Do you think they can be trapped with rules? Won't they just use loopholes and write laws that benefit themselves? I'm not sure if our current governing system is up to the task.
"Just need to tweak..." the system was already tweaked during trump's first and only legislative achievement. It was tweaked massively in favor of the wealthy, precisely the opposite of the tweak we "just need" to do.
imo a wealth tax is as close to theft as you can get without actually showing up guns drawn.
How many times is society going to "tax" the same money? The wages and compenstation have been taxed. The income from investments have been taxed. The realized gains on any investment have been taxed.
What's funny is I was just thinking this same thing. That is, this last election seemed really divisive! Far more than true differences. When we're fighting we're easier to control.
We have had the same thing in the UK where the EU barely made it into peoples top ten list of priorities to completely dividing the populace and subsuming every other political issue for the last three years.
I'm not totally sure whether it amplified the differences or took the lid off some rather nasty but hidden opinions. Either way the result hasn't been positive.
> But I know most of them are probably innocent and goood people.
That's really only true of those whose wealth is entirely inherited.
Anyone who made it to the economic top by owning a company in this day and age is statistically nearly certain to have done so by shamelessly exploiting the labor of his workers, for instance.
Obama, who during his first term could have chosen fiscal policy and tax policy, instead decided to take on health care. Obamacare also weakened the middle class.
A more accurate statement would be forcing health "insurance" companies to accept sick people and therefore pay for their care, and limiting the ration of highest premium to lowest premium so that sick people don't have to pay for their own healthcare caused premiums for the healthy middle class to rise.
More people are getting healthcare, hence more money is needed, and instead of raising taxes to pay for taxpayer funded healthcare, the US government decided to force health insurances to cover people who had to raise health "insurance" premiums.
More people were never going to get healthcare without an increase in either taxes or insurance premiums. Complaining about higher premiums is therefore complaining about more people getting healthcare, unless you would have rather higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for taxpayer funded healthcare for everyone.
At that point the ultrawealthy will seek to form an alliance with the growing popularity of the far right and seek to annihilate the left. This is simple self preservation. The far left will, after all, seek to destroy billionaires whereas the far right will seek out easier targets who look/sound different (muslims, immigrants, jews, gays, people of color, etc.).
The point where things start to become terrifying will be the point where billionaires give up on status quo politicians and start to throw their weight behind the far right. That's when the far right switch from being a bunch of racist, loser skinhead misfits into a well funded, slick and violent ultranationalist nightmare.
As far as I can tell, the current weimaresque neoliberal age is sputtering to a close and we're seeing the beginnings of this pattern re-emerging.