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My guess is as a species it will relocate to somewhere with the right temperature zone but because coral takes so long to grow from the perspective of those of us alive the existing “old growth” coral will die.


Today it’s Nue. Tomorrow it’ll be Olde and we’ll complain about all the boilerplate or repetitive update logic we now have to write.


Fair point—new tools pop up constantly, often just piling more layers on React’s bloated stack. Nue’s not that. It’s a fresh start, built on web standards and closer to the metal, not another abstraction treadmill. That’s why a button can be lighter than a whole app—less cruft, not more boilerplate. Tomorrow’s Olde might still fight yesterday’s bloat; Nue’s dodging that trap from day one


What do you think constitutes a collapse? Can you give a modern times example of a country collapsing in a way you’re imagining the US might?


I think the closest and most recent example we have is the Soviet Union. The US has a more homogeneous culture and language though. However, I can see states "caring" about themselves more than the union. This might actually turn out good for some states though probably catastrophic for some others.


The USSR was in a far worse position than the US is in. They had to build a wall to keep people from walking out. The US on the other hand is financially irresponsible. It can't afford a global Not-An-Empire any more because its economy is no longer the world's unchallenged largest but it isn't in a bad state in absolute terms. The scale of the challenges just aren't in the same league.

Unless it decides to go down fighting and gets something important blown up it could easily remain a nice place to live for centuries. Nobody threatens the US, it is hard to see how it'll ever be in anyone's interest to threaten them, they can re-learn how to be an industrial powerhouse if they have to. Almost all its real problems are ill-advised domestic policies that can be changed pretty quickly if people decide the situation is hairy enough to be honest in politics.

It might be in everyone's interests for the US to dissolve but it won't be as bad as the USSR dissolution was. It'd probably be a good outcome if they went back to the constitution as intended, depowered the federal government and became a collection of powerful states. A lot of the political tension is because whoever wins the fight over controlling the central government ends up with far too much power.


Indeed, federations splitting apart -- that's what happens in tough times.


US schools really ram home the 'we are american' message. 'Land of the free' and all that.

Those cultural ties will take tens, perhaps over 100 years, to weaken enough to cause a civil war.


I just don't think that's true at all. This country is ridiculously diverse and most people don't share much culture.


When I look at the Gerontocracy that rules american politics today, I can't help but remember myself of the Soviet Gerontocracy that ruled the USSR in its last decade or so.


I don't think the US has much of a homogenous culture outside of cities.


I think the collapse might take place in the shape of something like china: self interested elites, self sabotaging economic policy, a hollowing out economically by outside powers, numerous failed rebellions and devolution of central power due to lack of governability, etc. Aka, a period of somewhat rapid decay.


Not an expert on China, but I thought standard of living for Chinese people greatly improved in past 1-2 decades? can we call that a collapse?


The collapse is already happening it’s just happening slowly.

We’ve offshored manufacturing, cut funding for education, have failed to invest in infrastructure.


US manufacturing output is higher than ever. Although it makes up a declining share of GDP since other sectors have grown faster.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/uni...

Education funding per pupil has steadily increased year after year. Maybe we should spend even more, but our problems with bad educational outcomes are mostly due to other factors rather than a lack of money.

https://educationdata.org/public-education-spending-statisti...


We literally just invested $500B in infrastructure less than 4 years ago


Automation has done more to remove manufacturing jobs than offshore by a significant margin. 50-70% of job loss and wage reduction can be attributed to automation.

https://www.axios.com/2021/06/17/automation-ai-income-inequa...

Even if we bring back all the manufacturing jobs we've lost, they represent fewer positions and automation will continue to be a downward force on wages.


Factories in the US are less automated than in many foreign countries (SK, China, Germany) [0]. Same with our ports.

[0] https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robot-density...


So only more automation to come, and fewer manufacturing jobs


Not exactly a country, but Hong Kong comes to mind. . .


Hong Kong did not collapse. eh, it is doing okay. Sure you have a reduction in liberties but that's not what collapse means.


The people who lived in Hong Kong are worse off today even outside of political freedoms.


It's more "regression" or something. "Collapse" implies a dramatic event and something completely broken.


The collapse of the Roman Empire took decades and British Empire had a similarly long decline, but I understand your sentiment.


Yes, Gibbon makes for interesting reading. Decline can indeed be prolonged. I suppose it's like how some things get very slowly better over the decades, other things get very slowly worse over the decades.


Centuries, not decades.


I originally wrote centuries, but there’s reasonable criticism calling something a collapse when there’s periods of renewal and expansion in that timeframe.


This is fantastic! I hope you can foster a truly open, high quality, light and fast operating system that draws in multiple hardware vendors each with their own take on what a watch should be.


The material changes shape based on the amount of humidity in the air. The article doesn’t explain how that makes it respond to sunlight, which is what their demonstration system does. I didn’t think sunlight and humidity were always correlated. Am I missing something obvious?


Censorship is different than learned bias.


I.e. censorship is bias manually injected into, or after training. Often done to correct learned bias, particularly when that learned bias doesn't sit right with some people.


Who is David Mayer again?


I’ve heard this all too. My father grew up and lived in the former Yugoslavia. He’s since spoken about how well regarded Tito was and the opinion many had that he played a big hand in keeping Yugoslavia united whilst he was alive. He’s also talked about how Yugoslavia was sort of a buffer zone between the east and west and so a lot of freedoms were available to citizens there that weren’t in the full on communist countries. E.g when he was younger he did some work trips to Germany and on top of earning deutschmarks had a side hustle smuggling back jeans and records to sell.

Oh yeah and my folks gave me the impression growing up that Albania was scary as hell back then.


> Oh yeah and my folks gave me the impression growing up that Albania was scary as hell back then.

My best friend for a while in elementary school was a girl from an Albanian refugee family. Even she, an eight-year old, had only scary things to tell about Albania, mostly told to her by her parents and grandparents I guess.


Ahh Tintin. This takes me right back to the pre-internet era perusing the Tintin section at my school’s library. It was such a delight to occasionally come across one that I hadn’t read yet. Somehow this happened surprisingly often, I guess a bunch of us borrowers kept the series under heavy rotation.


Same, always a surprise to see that "book" was even there along with Asterix comics.


When both were unavailable, I had no other option to read the other books. I think I manage to devour almost all the (for kid) library back them.


In my school there was always a mad scramble every month to get first access to the latest addition to our school librarys' Tintin and Asterix sections; it resulted in many a schoolyard scrap, in fact. So much so, that our school librarian would often 'scramble' the day of the week that she'd release it into the collection .. some of us worked out that the release day of the week was simply incremented each month, however.

I vividly remember my disappointment that some of the richer kids just got their own 'subscription' to the Tintin/Asterix comics at home, and therefore often spoiled the stories for those of us dependent on the school library.

Was very non-Tintin like behaviour, I have to say .. which I eventually trumped by bringing to school a well-worn Lucky Luke collection that had been gifted to me, in order to share with the oik kids, exclusively ..


This was my takeaway from the article too.


This. Same in Australia.


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