The failures fall upwards into Brussels usually, sadly then you get very much second rate politicians that were even hated in their own countries.

I mean most countries send their failures there, also people who are not liked in the respective countries usually slip there for comfy jobs.

If they had allowed the western tech companies, these tech companies could easily control the information atmosphere and incite riots for instance.

Yeah, wonder why Trump doesn't threaten North Korea? Because they actually have achieved all this, internal internet completely sealed, nuclear weapons and developing ballistic missiles to reach the USA.

So actually.. getting the nukes was the right play for them because eventually they would get sold out by China or Russia. Having nukes gets you to shake hands and send love letters to Trump. Frankly Trump sees Europeans as total cucks and has more respect for Kim Jong-un

If Iran actually had nukes, the Israeli lead bullying would immediately halt.

Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent.

I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.

I would say the next country is likely much sooner than 2050, because 24 years is longer than the timelines for China, for India and Pakistan given when they became independent even assuming they started on that immediately, I think for Israel but it's hard to be sure given the secrecy, South Africa arguably but IIRC they didn't complete it, and obviously the USSR, USA, France, and the UK.

Yep at the end of the day, this is 1940s/50s technology. It's complicated but not that complicated

I remember back when Poland was joining NATO, they basically said that we want in NATO or we will build our own nuke.

Not sure if Trump understands that he is playing quite a dangerous game in terms of nuclear proliferation because if the US deterrent goes away, the small countries will start thinking about it.

Good analysis out there indicating sweden could beat Poland there. Finland and Germany also on the likely list. Then in the east Japan and sk. The npt is dead. The French government being completely gridlocked with a nonzero chance to go authoritarian itself, along with the us stepping away guarantee this.

> Good analysis out there indicating sweden could beat Poland there

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_nuclear_weapons_progra...

I feel it's nice to use AI coding for side-projects, especially after work when I am kind of tired. Although the one issue is that if it gets stuck in a loop or just does not get the what is wrong and does the wrong thing no matter how you twist it, then you have to go into the weeds to fix it yourself and it feels so tiresome, at that point I think what if I had just done everything myself so my mental model would be better.

Also we are still designing systems and have to be able to define the problem properly, at least in my company when we look at the velocity in delivering projects it is barely up since AI because the bottlenecks are elsewhere..

Why do people assume what currently available is the ceiling, especially after the last 2-3 years of explosive growth?

Do you truly believe it won't get better, maybe even better at whole system design and implementation than people?

> Do you truly believe it won't get better, maybe even better at whole system design and implementation than people?

What are you calling "growth"? Adoption, or LLM progress? LLM progress has objectively slowed down, and for rather obvious reasons. The leaps from GPT-2 to GPT-4 can't be reprised forever.

It will get better, but the rate at which it does may not continue to be exponential. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While the agents models seem to continue to improve, I think LLMs as a whole have started seeing less and less benefits from the current scaling approaches.

I think what we currently have is pretty close to the ceiling for LLMs. But with the amount of money being spent there might be a new breakthrough (not llm)

It must depend on the person. I’ve been coding for all my life but have never been GOOD. I thoroughly enjoy coding, despite being frustrated many times.

Literally yesterday I remarked to my tech friends how fun coding with CoPilot is. I actually make forward progress now, and I understand all that the agent is doing.

For me, coding is an enjoyable means to an end. I do enjoy the process, but I enjoy the results more.

You could read the syntax and see what it logically did. But you likely don't always know why it did something, and you definitely don't know why another way wasn't chosen (maybe that way would have better aligned with your long term goals)

I do know why. I read the code and understand it. Reading code for me is easier than writing it.

You're right though about it not choosing some different path, I might or I might not know that.

At least, they can still be much faster and cheaper.

I hate the Anthropic guy so much.. when I see the face it just brings back all the nonsense lies and "predictions" he says. Altman is kind of the same but for some reason Dario kind of takes the cake.

Also good for manufacturing consent in Reddit and other places. Intelligence services busy with certain country now, bots using LLMs to pump out insane amounts of content to mold the information atmosphere.

Yeah bro thanks for the tip and few shillings to you good sir. I was here still using GPT 2 because they said GPT 3 might be too dangerous.

This site seems astroturfed too. But tbh it's pretty good marketing compared to just buying ads.