Cigarretes are an interesting example. Its way more about general society attitude, without doing a full baning. And that's likely what we need for other stuff.
We litearlly can't ban everything that is bad in the large. That would simply be to many things.
As a fan of space this makes me sad. AI Datacenters are complete nonsense. And binding all of this stuff SpaceX is idiotic. SpaceX could do so many great things for space and now its all messed up in the AI race.
Here is the thing, you demand incredibly high amounts of capital cost for not actually achieving much. And that capital could be use for far, far, far, far more useful things the city actually needs. Like high capacity transports, like metros, trams or bike lanes.
The amount of goods that need to be transported to stores and such things isn't that big. And using literally free unused roads at night or early in the morning is just a great deal.
For individual transport last mile is regularly being done by cargo bike or small electric truck just fine.
But you are right, tunnels do make sense for some things. Like transporting garbage underground. Or transporting heat underground for district heating, or district cooling. Both would be better investments then trying to move logistics under-ground.
There is a reason, no serious attempt anywhere in the world is trying to move logistics under-ground. There are just so, so many better ways to invest in the city. Its literally not even in the Top 100 most needed things.
Specially in the US where the road network is so hilariously overbuilt that it could serve 10x the amount of people on the same area if public transport was just taken minimally serious. And in the US, underground cargo transport isn't even in the Top 1000 things a city should consider spending money on.
There’s only so much gridlock you can avoid without going above or below grade. I was shocked when I moved to Seattle and they had no subway system. It was made even worse by being crammed up against a tall hill with a ridiculously deep lake behind it. They are finally changing it now but I’d spent time in Tokyo before, and time in London and Paris shortly after and it was a real head scratcher. One bus tunnel helped, as was evidenced when they shut it down for a couple years, but cmon.
Their mistake was to go from tunnels to transportation systems. I'm sure there are some innovations possible in tunnel boring. But that's not going to be some massive growth market.
> But trying to reinvent transportation was stupid.
It's not stupid, it's weaponized incompetence to divert funding from actual transportation infrastructure to their non-solutions which are all about the company owner's biggest money-making product (cars).
> Tesla + Panasonic has a built in advantage in terms of battery manufacturing. Tesla has a massive amount of capital, if they put it into reducing and scaling manufacturing of vehicles and batteries, I think they could probably win.
This is a very wrong way to tell the story.
Tesla + Panasonic were the first to commit to a massive factor car cells with very advanced chemistry. But this advantage didn't hold long as the model was soon copied.
And at that point, when that investment happened Tesla did actually not have 'a massive amount of capital'. And Panasonic also didn't, and even more so, Panasonic didn't want to go all in on batteries. As they were a company from Japan that still believed in the Hydrogen future.
By the time Tesla had serious capital, the other battery companies had long shot past Tesla+Panasonic and it wasn't even close.
Claiming that Panasonic and Tesla can win now is just silly and based on nothing.
Tesla was actually pretty clever on this and invested rather a large amount in their own battery supply chain. And they spun up a whole battery supply chain pretty quickly. But arguably they were a bit two ambitious. Musk really pushed the boundary with the cells, introducing or trying to introduce a lot of things that were hard to do and simply took time. They should have started more conservatively first and only tried to innovated once they could match the other companies on the standard process.
There was no chance for them to be a massive battery supplier to the outside, but making their own batteries for their own cars and getting better margin then all the other companies was well within the cards. And that by itself is a win.
But overall their battery strategy wasn't really the problem. They did a lot of good things there. And things that can pay off over time. The problem was to much investment in stuff other then batteries and their car models. The most important thing for them was to have growing volume every year. Work on manufacturing improvements and fight on margins.
But as you say, I agree the focus on driverless was a mistake.
IMO, they're bad, but not so bad as "have their brain examined".
While they absolutely do have huge problems at current costs, and I don't trust Musk's estimates for future costs.
It's not implausible that collectively humanity (well, China: it's not like the ESA appears to value cheap launches yet) is going to get launch costs down a lot further, something that makes the question of "how
cheap is cheap enough?" worth asking.
Then you can take a look at the existing constellations and their combined power throughput, look at whatever fraction of that power budget is not radiated by RF/laser output for comms, and trivially that's the power budget with minimal redesign for compute.
IMO all of space is still not good enough to be worth caring about: the moon is about twice the difficulty of LEO, and LEO now getting to the point that we're seriously asking about Kessler cascades; but also in space the waste heat is currently only a problem with no currently-useful side-effects, whereas down here on Earth we have possibilities for using the waste heat as an industrial input, e.g. using DCs as the heat source for district heating, or combining with ocean water to become evaporative desalination (which is otherwise pointlessly energy-intensive).
That, and the arguments about space-based power is as yet still marginal given how hostile an environment space itself is to PV. And PV on the moon doesn't even get the advantages (launch cost or ~24h light) of PV in a sun-synchronous orbit around Earth.*
But it's close enough to not be insane to do a real engineering analysis. Even if the answer turns out to still be 10x more expensive than the ground, which is what I'm expecting it to be.
* Side note: for a while I've noticed that China has production and money to afford to build a global power grid on Earth with 1 Ω resistance the long way around. This would allow 24h PV everywhere from deserts on the other side of the world including across seasons. Less material would be required to do this on the Moon because it's smaller, and also you don't really need to go across the equator so it can be much shorter, but also this would need someone to put an aluminium plant onto the moon that has negligible consumables and IIRC we don't have one of those yet.
Still, if moon-base design were up to me, I'd suggest sending up 1000 km of HVDC cable on some early missions and put a ring around one of the poles, with some PV every 60° or so.
This is still not a sensible design for moon-based compute.
10x is very very optimistic. Practically it would be more.
Even if you assume launch cost = zero its most expensive and less practical.
And the moon is even worse. Still you can assume launch cost = zero. But energy is one part, to actually reliably land on the moon with your whole infrastructure. Connecting all that infrastucture up with power and everything else.
Your basically doing a gigantic civil engineering project all with only roboitcs, while we can't even do a civil engineering project on earths with only robots.
And if your going moon, nuclear is clearly the better option then solar towers. And if you go nuclear anyway, just do it on earth.
The problem is just there is no concept of a car company where they only sell their standard mass market vehicles. Somewhat more expensive higher margin vehicles are in the lineup for almost all the other companies. Its kind of strange to suggest its not worth it when it is seemingly worth it for most other companies.
Maybe the wisdom of having a 'full lineup' is wrong and has to do with making dealers happy.
On the other hand, having 99% of your sales be 2 very similar vehicles seems questionable strategy.
It is worth it when it is done right, i.e when you do correct market differentiation (see my other comment here on Mercedes) to avoid your low end cannibalizing your higher end. This high margin really helps you, and this is why almost everybody does it. EVs are probably even better suited for it given that the platform itself is easier/cheaper to share between the low end and the high end - thus the current Teslas S/X story looks even more of a failure as by releasing 3/Y that similar to S/X (that probably helped a lot with 3/Y sales though) they forced themselves into the need for a very significant (expensive) redesign of S/X while having very low sales of it.
The big issue with S/X was that they were not luxury enough, in terms of performance they were fine. So the redesign was mostly needed in terms of interior quality, materials and so on. Not that crazy expensive and something all other car companies manage to do.
I see it differently - they needed to redesign everything except the power train. I.e. in addition to the interior, externally it should have been looking way upscale from 3/Y. Giving that their design language is already almost 2 decades old, they needed (and actually would still need it for 3/Y max 5 years down the road) to have a full redesign for S/X similar to how BMW did with 2002 7-series trickling down that design into 2004 5-series and 2006 3-series (or like Mercedes did with S-class in 1996 and trickling down that to E and C later)
We litearlly can't ban everything that is bad in the large. That would simply be to many things.
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