It could be worth mentioning that this guy had been the commander-in-cheif from April 2012 until December 2013, did not hold any post since then and retired in 2018. Otherwise people might get an impression he had been in the military in 2022 and describes an actual state of the military instead of his opinion.
The US does not have "legal after being a certain time in the country by any means" laws like some other countries. It's the opposite: the longer you are in the country illegally, the more penalty you accrue. There had been one-off amnesties when people were indeed given legal status for being in the country illegally long enough, but there were only two of those: in 1929 and 1986.
>If someone is here long enough to obtain a state id, there's no reason to detain them on suspicion of their status having expired
It seems like you believe that if somebody had been long enough in a state to obtain a state id then their status in the country is legal forever. In the few states where I've got id it took about a month to get an id - you need to lease some housing and get two bills. But even if it took 50 years to get a state id it would not change anything - a state id is not a proof of legal status in the country. Immigration officers can detain people on reasonable suspicion, which is the same standard that is needed for a traffic stop.
I have not seen this in the article, which is mostly focused on strawmanning the Real ID but even it was there, it's just an opinion. The law does not make any exceptions for having a valid ID as far as I know.
Yes, I'm doing the strange thing of talking about what a just, moral society should do rather than interpreting and analyzing the limits of current law.
A just, moral society, would not let people off with violating its laws for decades so it would not need to hunt them down when its citizens got finally fed up.
Treasuries are not some kind of artifacts that can be stored indefinitely, they are bonds with maturity dates. As they mature they turn into cash automatically and that cash used to come from selling new treasuries. As the demand dwindles the US has to sell its bonds cheaper thus borrowing at higher interest and that interest will have to be paid by selling even more treasuries at even higher interest so it's already a feedback loop.
Not sure what your links are supposed to prove but here is the link[1] to the actual yield on the 10 year bond, higher yield means the bond is sold at higher discount i.e. cheaper.
> higher yield means the bond is sold at higher discount i.e. cheaper
Yes. The Fed set a policy of higher rates. It did that by selling bonds and driving the price up.
Then it set a policy of reducing rates, and was able to do that by just selling fewer bonds. Not buying them. That implies strong demand for these assets. (You can’t use price as a proxy for demand in Treasuries since it’s an explicitly manipulated price by its issuer.)
Long bond rates have somewhat decoupled from short term rates set by the fed. For instance, they just slashed short term rates 25bps, but long bond rates (10+ years) have actually gone up a few basis points since the cut.
This is exactly what we'd expect if demand for treasuries wasn't keeping pace with US debt issuance. I mean, if you look at the debt, and the USD's current position, there really is no way out for the US government other than inflating the currency and cashing in that reserve status for a reset. The obviousness of that reality is why precious metals are going nuts.
> For instance, they just slashed short term rates 25bps, but long bond rates (10+ years) have actually gone up a few basis points since the cut
Could you point to the date range you’re referencing?
> if you look at the debt, and the USD's current position, there really is no way out for the US government other than inflating the currency and cashing in that reserve status for a reset
Of course there is. Loads of options.
Broadly speaking, the talk around rates and commodities tends to involve serious people totally divorced from the talk-show/Zero Hedge circuit.
> Could you point to the date range you’re referencing?
The last two months. There was a rate cut in October and again in December, but since late October long bond yields have been rising.
> Of course there is. Loads of options.
For instance?
The US debt is currently rolling over into higher rates bringing the average yield of our debt up. The only way around that, if long bond yields don't come down, is to roll the debt into short term treasuries where the rate is tied more to fed funds rate. That would be inflationary.
There are two main reasons for what you describe: very flat terrain in Netherlands and people living in multi-family buildings mostly. Thus people don't ride any substantial distance according to Netherland's own statistics [1] and don't physically exert while doing so.
In the US average commute is 42 miles daily, that's over 67 km, or more than two weeks of riding a Dutch 12-18 y.o. does, or a month of riding of a Dutch 35-50 y.o. I'd like to invite any Dutch, who believes it's the same in the US, to ride 67km daily for 5 days straight, even in their own flat neighborhood. It might enlighten them why cyclists elsewhere wear special clothes too! And this is without hills...
Can you explain in more detail how the repeat criminals get caught in your scheme?
I can see how surveillance could help in identifying the criminal, finding him or her, and as evidence of crime in the trial, but what exactly happens without it that gets them identified, found and convicted? As of now clearance rate of property crimes is <15% according to a quick search.
There is already lots of surveillance and was even before modern technology. I'd agree that having some at all is of value, my argument was that you don't need much past that to get what we need and certainly don't need the kind of pervasive surveillance that some want: It won't move the needle on crime much past a baseline level but it will enable abuses that are much worse than the level of property crime we see today. Authoritarian governments are the number one mass murderer throughout human history by a wide margin.
Low clearance rates for property crime are significantly because nothing is even done much of the time -- police just take a report and often won't even follow up on an obvious lead (including stuff like "find my phone says my thousand dollar phone is in that house over there").
But in any case to more directly answer your question: If the clearance rate is 15% then they have a 90% chance of being caught after ~14 crimes.
>There is already lots of surveillance and was even before modern technology.
Do you mean that all the people who are installing Flock cameras now do that not because they think there is not enough surveillance but for some other reason? Like help a YC company to raise more money? Or help LEOs to stalk their exes? Or some other crazy reason mentioned in these threads?
Do you have a neighborhood social network (NextDoor and its kind)? If you do, check out reports of theft, they rarely have any surveillance and ones that have are very poor quality, usually not showing the perp enough to ID.
> But in any case to more directly answer your question: If the clearance rate is 15% then they have a 90% chance of being caught after ~14 crimes.
This does not follow. If your math had been valid we'd have to agree that hunting elk in a forest where 15% of animals are bears would result in 90% chance that every 15th elk would turn out to be a bear.
How can an intelligent company make money from illegal activity in your opinion? Day laborers hang in the parking lot because they can't work legally, if they could then they could use HD's contractor portal and bid on jobs there.
They are mostly hired by the contractors who advertise their services online and through aps, who go to HD several times a day anyways. The final customer deals with the contractors, not with the day laborers.
If normal resistance to weight gain or appetite lead to 35+ BMI then we would not have had the obesity epidemic, it would be just normal state for humans to be 200+ lbs weight just like it's normal to be under 7' height.
A "whataboutism" defense only works in an argument that goes like this:
A:"You should stop doing X because X is wrong and evil and you are wrong and evil if you continue doing X!"
B:"But you beat your wife."
Where X != "beating one's wife".
Here the B's argument is: "But you do X yourself!". This is not an attack on moral character but a direct refutation of A's argument. If A really thought X is wrong and evil then A would not be doing X. And if A really considers itself wrong and evil then it should be figuring a way to stop doing X first, or, at least, concurrently with demanding that from B. Either way, A is not very persuasive.
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