So it's performative when the head of AWS says it and not news. But it's not performative when you say it and people should have listened to you in the comments?
It's performative when you talk whatever the market wants to hear rather than sticking to an opinion (no matter how flawed it is). This behavior reminds me of the cryptobros that were hailing NFTs/web3 as the next best thing since sliced bread, and when that didn't came to pass quietly moved onto the next grift (AI) with the same playbook.
(also I’m just talking out of my ass on a tech forum under a pseudonym instead of going to well-publicized interviews)
I rented a mach-e recently. Went up to Snoqualamie pass from seattle. I used over 60 miles range in 10 miles on the steep part at the end, 1/6th. Going the other way I got a maybe 20% boost in distance over flat. There were a few places I was able to regen-brake, but I never had the battery go up, only stay flat. And a few times I lost enough speed that I didn't handle an interim flat well. I was extremely disappointed.
It turns out friction and drag are still things. On a pure downhill you would be able to roll, but it's not as good as going down is bad.
I also found that the car did a lot worse rolling down hill than my mini-cooper manual when I just put the clutch in, which got up to hairy speeds. Heck vehicle seemed to have more inbuilt resistance to just rolling than the fire engine I've run down that hill.
Overall I got 90 total miles of range and hit the flat at 10% battery. I was able to get 290 miles driving in seattle with the same vehicle.
It might have been affected by the driving mode you were in?
For instance, one pedal modes (across manufacturers) tend to much highly favor regenerative breaking over friction brakes. Of the models I've driven such modes often seem to give you better feedback in the sweet spots of the pedal curve when you are just rolling and not braking/accelerating.
Additionally, in my experience rental cars are more likely to be in sports modes when you pick them up (I think some of the rental car places may even do this as policy to make customers happier when they rent them?), and down shifting them to more balanced energy modes (Ford's is called "Engage") can mean a huge difference in practical range.
I wouldn't buy a mach-e to baby it and feather the pedal, like what's the point.
I have several fun to drive relatively fuel efficient cars that are sunk costs. I work from home, they're just getting old. I have a pickup to go do dirty things like duck hunting.
The ev seems great for driving to work (I work from home) or around town. I was very unimpressed with it's short trip range and efficiency on a hill (whole trip empg was 44). I spent half as much time at the charger as I did driving. I'm sure it'll get better. Much higher charging speed would help a lot (Mach-e is limited to 150). The extended range battery would help.
Any other sub 3.5s 0-60 under 70 evs out there? If you can't tell I don't care about pure efficiency, I care about a fun to drive car that's got better efficiency than an IC and a usable range.
The point of mentioning the driving modes is the reverse of "baby the pedal", let software do that for you. EVs are software-defined cars. They have modes that say "don't worry about efficiency, just waste as much energy as I want" and modes that say "balance efficiency with raw performance". In both you can pedal about the same and the car determines how to balance raw torque versus battery efficiency and regen breaking versus friction braking for you.
Many EVs are just as fun to drive in "balanced" modes as they are in "sport" modes, but your efficiency goes way up. Rental cars seem to think you want "sport" modes that are more inefficient because you want to rev that 0-60 more than you want better trip range. That's maybe a good way to sell the EV as fun to drive, but it's not a great way to sell the EV as useful for long trips.
The trick is the EVs already offer both experiences in their software (because they can, because that's how they work), you just unfortunately need to learn the manufacturer-specific ways to change driving modes to get the most of what you want out of a rental car rather than what the last customer wanted or what the rental company thinks you want without asking you. (If you want both experiences knowing how and when to change modes is even more critical.)
That's weird. Seattle-to-Yakima at 70 mph average speed and 85 mph peak speed is about 1.5x the normal energy use for me (260 Wh/m vs 350 Wh/m). Leaving me with 20% of charge when starting at 100% (260 miles): https://imgur.com/a/Dhs38kJ
And this was during the wintertime, so with a reasonable amount of heating.
Your analogy makes no sense. VHS spawned the entire home market, which went through multiple quality upgrades well above beta. It would only make sense if in 2025 we were using vhs everywhere and that the current state of the art for LLMs is all there ever is.
I feel like their analogy could have worked if they had pushed a little further into it.
The RNN and LSTM architectures (and Word2Vec, n-grams, etc) yielded language models that never got mass adoption. Like reel to reel. Then the transformer+attention hit the scene and several paths kicked off pretty close to each other. Google was working on Bert/encoder only transformer, maybe you could call that betamax. Doesn’t perfectly fit as in the case of beta it was actually the better tech.
OpenAI ran with the generative pre trained transformer and ML had its VHS? moment. Widespread adoption. Universal awareness within the populace.
Now with Titans (+miras?) are we entering the dvd era? Maybe. Learning context on the fly (memorizing at test time) is so much more efficient, it would be natural to call it a generational shift, but there is so much in the works right now with the promise of taking us further, this all might end up looking like the blip that beta vs vhs was. If current gen OpenAI type approaches somehow own the next 5-10 years then Titans, etc as Betamax starts to really fit - the shittier tech got and kept mass adoption. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but who knows.
Taking the analogy to present - who in the vhs or even earlier dvd days could imagine ubiquitous 4k+ vod? Who could have stood in a blockbuster in 2006 and knew that in less than 20 years all these stores and all these dvds would be a distant memory, completely usurped and transformed? Innovation of home video had a fraction of the capital being thrown at it that AI/ML has being thrown at it today. I would expect transformative generational shifts the likes of reel to cassette to optical to happen in fractions of the time they happened to home video. And beta/vhs type wars to begin and end in near realtime.
The mass adoption and societal transformation at the hands of AI/ML is just beginning. There is so. much. more. to. come. In 2030 we will look back at the state of AI in December 2025 and think “how quaint”, much the same as how we think of a circa 2006 busy Blockbuster.
Vhs came out in 76, blockbuster started in 85 (we went to video stores well before that when I was a kid), dvd in 95. I remember the sopranos making a joke about how dvd was barely taking off, they started in 99. Lets call it VHS had a run from 80 to 99, that's 19 years. The iphone launched in 2007, when did mobile become huge or inseprable from doing life (by force by so many apps), probbably in the pandemic.
I wouldn't say VHS was a blip. It was the recorded half video of media for almost 20 years.
I agree with the rest of what you said.
I'll say that the differences in the AI you're talking about today might be like the differences between VAX, PC JR, and the Lisa. All things before computing went main stream. I do think things go mainstream from tech a lot faster these days, people don't want to miss out.
I don't know where I'm going with this, I'm reading and replying to HN while watching the late night NFL game in an airport lounge.
I buy and re-image old chromebooks to use for terminals for paperwork at a few places I volunteer, they're like $50 and easy to reimage... and nice for doing paperwork.
I've worked at companies that don't really have to sell on features. The product people still come up with new ideas constantly and don't pay attention to the quality. Heck, engineers will gin up new systems to build if they're bored.
I purposely switch to light mode for screenshots just to troll. And like a same person (not saying I am one just cosplaying) I adjust my windows to the ambient conditions.
Like most things, it gets pretty complicated. I went through 200 hours of training (EMT) which essentially helps me sort into what makes me go safe, go fast to a medic en route or a hospital, and go fast to a hospital (where a paramedic can't help much or at all). The goal of all Emergency medical personnel is to get people to definitive care (not EMS).
Asking a lay person to know what a BLS (non-EMT fire & police), EMT (Ambulance), Parmedic, or MSO can take care of, or even what the differences are, is, I don't think, super useful. The red vehicle shows up and takes you to care.
In the case of MCI, EMTs can a) give aspirin or nitro (rx), b) have an AED and lots of CPR training but have to stop the vehicle to give effective compressions, c) a radio and the ability to meet up with Paramedics.
Paramedics have more complex treatments (drugs) and EKGs, but it's still 2 folks in a truck, not a hospital. They can do amazing things.
But as the joke goes, sometimes the best treatment is High Volume Diesel Therapy (burn rubber).
As far as I know, there are also different paradigms for ambulances: "scoop and run" (ie stabilise the patient and take them to a hospital ASAP) vs "stay and play" (try the first line of treatment there before taking the patient to the hospital).
Different countries (with different urban environments, distances, etc.) use different approaches.
reply