What? You are not doing it already? Look at this guy...

Oh I thought to avoid a morning dump! Disappointed

AI agents is like outsourcing to a bad team offshore - yeah they can build and maybe cheap but requires lots of hand holding.

its going to replace outsourcing to offshore teams pretty robustly though I suspect

Ask stupid questions get stupid answers, don't see how it shows anything.

Lame! I would vibe-code a new OS that already has all the drivers!

You can be the next one! - https://github.com/kaansenol5/VibeOS

>> Do you see any reason that progress will stop abruptly here?

I do. When someone thinks they are building next generation super software for 20$ a month using AI, they conveniently forget someone else is paying the remaining 19,980$ for them for compute power and electricity.

there is software and software. lots of enterprise software gets re-written every 2-5 years, some projects are in rubbish bin as soon as finished (if finished)

Well he said - anyone can (or will soon) vibe-program their own MS Word - there is no way he is a programmer, sorry. The complexity of these systems is crazy. Unless he meant ah HTML text area with "save" button - then sure, why not.

> there is no way he is a programmer, sorry

Lol I've been programming for 30 years.

> The complexity of these systems is crazy. Unless he meant ah HTML text area with "save" button - then sure, why not.

What do you see as the difference between an LLM making an HTML text area and a save button, and an LLM making MS word? It just sounds like a scaling problem to me. We've been scaling computers since long before I was born. My first computer was a 386 with 4mb of ram. You needed a special add-in chip to enable floating point calculations. Now look at what we have.

As far as I can tell, the only difference between opus 4.6 and some future AI model that could code up MS word is a difference in scale. Are you betting against the entire computing (software and hardware) industry being unable to scale LLMs past their current point? That seems like a really bad bet to me. Especially seeing how far they've come in the last few years. Claude code can already do some quite complex tasks. I got it to write a simple web based email client for me yesterday. It took about an hour in total. It has some bugs, but the email client works.

We scaled hard drives. We scaled down silicon chips. We scaled digital camera sensors. And display resolutions. And networking bandwidth. We went from the palm pilot to the first iphone to modern phones. Do you really think we'll be unable to scale AI models?

>> industry being unable to scale LLMs past their current point

100% bet - no way any "AI" will be able to generate you anything close to a complex piece of software like Ms Word within reasonable time and budget. Given infinite time and money - sure, anything is possible, just like a trilling monkeys randomly printing "War and Peace" once in a trillion years in some remote galaxy. I don't even understand your confidence given how much guidance and hand holding LLMs need at the moment to produce anything useful.

Looks like a failure of imagination?

There are clearly two camps - one points to existing deficiencies, another - to trends, and getting wildly different predictions.

Yep. Claude today? No way can it achieve this. It can barely write a working C compiler.

I'm looking at the trend line. A few years ago it couldn't make a simple webpage. Now it can make a bad C compiler in thousands of dollars of tokens. What does it look like in another few years? Or another 2 decades?

100%, it's like with "Suno" - everyone can create a good quality music/song basically in 2-3 minutes (and vibe programming can only do.... nothing in a few minutes) - how many new great bands and musicions we got )))))

You might not get great musicians from using Suno, but an ad company might decide to just generate a jingle rather than hire a musician to do it. Same with images/videos. The result might not be great, but the companies does it in 3 minutes and close-to-zero cost. Similarly, you can vibe-code a website for a restaurant (that does a very basic thing like display a menu, opening hours, maybe a google map location). It might not be the best, but you would be surprised at the amount of people that are willing to sacrifice quality for cheap prices.

Sure, but it's nothing new - CMSes, website builders, no-code platforms, code generators - AI on top of a website builder can really help and it does help. But not building operating systems or Word from scratch for every person or company - this is just nuts.

I heard a stat on the economist podcast the other day talking about AI music production. They said spotify estimates 40% of songs on their platform are now AI generated. The AI generated songs make up 0.5% of total listening time.

Low quality music made in bulk seems much less useful than low quality code made in bulk.

So would knowingly participate in illegal activity to catch criminals? Unless you are the law yourself you cannot do it )