That hasn’t been my experience. I agree Opus has the edge but it’s not by that much and I still sometimes get better results from Gemini, especially when debugging issues.
Claude Code is much better than Gemini CLI though.
This kind of take I find genuinely baffling. I can't see how anybody working with current frontier models isn't finding them a massive performance boost. No they can't replace a competent developer yet, but they can easily at least double your productivity.
Careful code review and a good pull request flow are important, just as they were before LLMs.
People thought they were doubling their productivity and then real, actual studies showed they were actually slower. These types of claims have to be taken with entire quarries of salt at this point.
No, I wouldn't say it's super complex. I make custom 3D engines. It's just that you and I were probably never in any real competition anyway, because it's not super common to do what I do.
I will add that LLMs are very mediocre, bordering on bad, at any challenging or interesting 3D engine stuff. They're pretty decent at answering questions about surface API stuff (though, inexplicably, they're really shit at OpenGL which is odd because it has way more code out there written in it than any other API) and a bit about the APIs' structure, though.
I really don't know how effective LLMs are at that but also that puts you in an extremely narrow niche of development, so you should keep that in mind when making much more general claims about how useful they are.
My bigger point was that not everyone who is skeptical about supposed productivity gains and their veracity is in competition with you. I think any inference you made beyond that is a mistake on your part.
(I did do web development and distributed systems for quite some time, though, and I suspect while LLMs are probably good at tutorial-level stuff for those areas it falls apart quite fast once you leave the kiddy pool.)
P.S.:
I think it's very ironic that you say that you should be careful to not speak in general terms about things that might depend much more on context, when you clearly somehow were under the belief that all developers must see the same kind of (perceived) productivity gains you have.
You discount the value of being intimately familiar with each line of code, the design decisions and tradeoffs because one wrote the bloody thing.
It is negative value for me to have a mediocre machine do that job for me, that I will still have to maintain, yet I will have learned absolutely nothing from the experience of building it.
This to me seems like saying you can learn nothing from a book unless you yourself have written it. You can read the code the LLM writes the same as you can read the code your colleagues write. Moreover you have to pretty explicitly tell it what to write for it to be very useful. You're still designing what it's doing you just don't have to write every line.
"Reading is the creative center of a writer’s life.” — Stephen King, On Writing
You need to design the code in order to tell the LLM how to write it. The LLM can help with this but generally it's better to have a full plan in place to give it beforehand. I've said it before elsewhere but I think this argument will eventually be similar to the people arguing you don't truly know how to code unless you're using assembly language for everything. I mean sure assembly code is better / more efficient in every way but who has the time to bother in a post-compiler world?
Good point! You should generate a website for them with "why ai is not good" articles. Have it explore all possible angles. Make it detective style story with appealing characters.
I would also take those studies with a grain of salt at this point, or at least taking into consideration that a model from even a few months ago might have significant enough results from the current frontier models.
And in my personal experience it definitely helps in some tasks, and as someone who doesn't actually enjoy the actual coding part that much, it also adds some joy to the job.
Recently I've also been using it to write design docs, which is another aspect of the job that I somewhat dreaded.
I think the bigger part of those studies was actually that they were a clear sign that whatever productivity coefficient people were imagining back then was clearly a figment of their imagination, so it's useful to take that lesson with you forward. If people are saying they're 2 times productive with LLMs, it's still likely the case that a large part of that is hyperbole, whatever model they're working with.
It's the psychology of it that's important, not the tool itself; people are very bad at understanding where they're spending their time and cannot accurately assess the rate at which they work because of it.
I like coming up with the system design and the low level pseudo code, but actually translating it to the specific programming language and remembering the exact syntax or whatnot I find pretty uninspiring.
Same with design docs more or less, translating my thoughts into proper and professional English adds a layer I don't really enjoy (since I'm not exactly great at it), or stuff like formatting, generating a nice looking diagram, etc.
Just today I wrote a pretty decent design doc that took me two hours instead of the usual week+ slog/procrastination, and it was actually fairly enjoyable.
Churning out 2x as much code is not doubling productivity. Can you perform at the same level as a dev who is considered 2x as productive as you? That's the real metric. Comparing quality to quantity of code ratios, bugs caused by your PRs, actual understanding of the code in your PR, ability to think slow, ability to deal with fires, ability to quickly deal with breaking changes accidentally caused by your changes.
Churning out more more per day is not the goal. No point merging code that either doesn't fully work, is not properly tested, other humans (or you) cannot understand, etc.
Why is that the real metric? If you can turn a 1x dev into a 2x dev that's a huge deal, especially if you can also turn the original 2x dev into a 4x dev.
And far from "churning out code" my work is better with LLMs. Better tested, better documented, and better organized because now I can do refactors that just would have taken too much time before. And more performant too because I can explore more optimization paths than I had time to before.
Refusing to use LLMs now is like refusing to use compilers 20 years ago. It might be justified in some specific cases but it's a bad default stance.
The answer to "Can you perform at the same level as a dev who is considered 2x as productive as you?" is self-explanatory. If your answer is negative, you are not 2x as productive
Seriously, I’m lucky if 10% of what I do in a week is writing code. I’m doubly lucky if, when I do, it doesn’t involve touching awful corporate horse-shit like low-code products that are allergic to LLM aid, plus multiple git repos, plus having knowledge from a bunch of “cloud” dashboard and SaaS product configs. By the time I prompt all that external crap in I could have just written what I wanted to write.
This is completely incorrect. Large companies like Canonical are all in on Flutter even now, they're making it the default for desktop UI development in Ubuntu and are writing a lot of their own apps in Flutter.
The "layoffs" were not any of the core team, it was just an offshoring, of infrastructure devs at Google that happened to work on Flutter builds, to Europe where they rehired for the same positions there.
Google Workspace has been moving to KMP. They said at KotlinConf that it has replaced their decade-old transpiler from Java to ObjC, which is very impressive.
Yes this is because they are starting with a Java codebase and that obviously makes sense there.
You have other platforms like Google earth who when it was time for a proper rewrite went with flutter and dart along with a bunch of Google cloud stuff and Google Ads.
SwiftUI on macOS 26 still has issues but it’s finally starting to evolve into something usable. In particular it seems like the long standing performance problems are being addressed.
Their Cocoa based frameworks were good for their time, I'll grant you that. Swift & SwiftUI, at least in their current state, are a mess with some pretty fundamental issues.
Claude Code is much better than Gemini CLI though.