Like poker, math only takes you so far in sales. You have to learn people if you want to succeed at selling. In fact, math is all but irrelevant for most person to person sales. Buying decisions are mostly emotional. Learning people is a skill that will translate to every other aspect of your life.
this is a bad analogy. at the highest level, poker is entirely math. the player with a better understanding of GTO will demolish someone who tries to "learn people"
playing "GTO" doesn't mean you will destroy people, this is a common misunderstanding of the term. It means that you are playing in a way that cannot be exploited - this does not mean you're also playing in the way that will win you the most money.
Also, there is no "better understanding" of GTO because poker is an unsolved game, and the assumptions you feed into a GTO playstyle can change quickly or be wrong. The thought you can sit there like an automaton with a set strategy and win is false.
been playing off and on professionally for 20 years
> The thought you can sit there like an automaton with a set strategy and win is false.
This is provably false.
You're absolutely right that GTO does not guarantee you'll win the maximum against a fish, but neither does exploitative play. In fact, exploitative play can't guarantee you anything, which is probably why old-school pro players are perennially going broke throughout their careers (that and bad bankroll management).
IMO, currently, over 90% of pro poker players (especially live and in the US) fundamentally do not understand how poker should be played (which is why they get so easily destroyed by the new generation in online heads up).
> You're absolutely right that GTO does not guarantee you'll win the maximum against a fish, but neither does exploitative play. In fact, exploitative play can't guarantee you anything, which is probably why old-school pro players are perennially going broke throughout their careers (that and bad bankroll management).
I'm not arguing in favor of one or the other, I am just correcting the misunderstanding. In reality, you should adapt to the conditions at the table and your opponents habits, because "GTO" is only possible against perfect play to begin with, so you're always going to be playing slightly imperfectly. so is everyone, because you cannot know everything. And again, it's almost never the way to win the most money. It's a distinction not a lot of GTO nerds understand. I'm not arguing against it at all - I use GTO solvers to work on stuff a lot.
And I also never claimed exploitative strategies guarantee everything, for the same reason "GTO" doesn't either. It's a game of incomplete information. The skill comes in using incomplete information in making good assumptions - that is almost nothing to do with math. And, there are pros that have been winning for long amounts of time knowing zero about GTO theory.
There is an entire area of math about the uncertainty of decision correctness in incomplete information scenarios. One of the neat aspects of it is that all computable optimal decision makers are mechanically exploitable if you have a reasonably accurate model of their finiteness. In the case of human minds, that just means they are a lot like you. The exploits require iterated games and are cognitively difficult (you have to track a lot of state).
Anecdotally, in my poker playing days I had a lot of success by attacking quasi-optimal play this way. Optimality is contextual. You can engineer a context that motivates suboptimal decisions in fact, though it isn’t easy.
However, at the limit, this is really just attacking the cognitive facilities of your opponents rather than the math of the game. Someone that with a similar ability to manipulate large amounts of state mentally could nullify the advantage. It is meta-games all the way down.
> Optimality is contextual. You can engineer a context that motivates suboptimal decisions in fact, though it isn’t easy.
I agree with your post but I'd just like to nitpick that this first phrase is not true, the equilibrium point is independent of what your opponent does.
I'm pretty sure you know this as you then go on to describe not a context where the equilibrium changes but where it becomes hard for humans to find the equilibrium.
So we agree, it's just a small nitpick of how you worded.
> "GTO" is only possible against perfect play to begin with
This is a very common misconception, probably because GTO is usually explained as the equilibrium reached by 2 perfect players.
The key insight of GTO is that you do not adjust your strategy to what your opponent is doing. If you play the equilibrium strategy and they don't, you're guaranteed to make money.
> And I also never claimed exploitative strategies guarantee everything, for the same reason "GTO" doesn't either. It's a game of incomplete information.
I didn't say you did, I was just making my own independent argument as to why intuitive play is dangerous and people often end up deceiving themselves into thinking they're winning players.
> And, there are pros that have been winning for long amounts of time knowing zero about GTO theory.
Which is why I said that, IMO, 90% of pro players fundamentally misunderstand poker (and that's not even counting the losing players who think they're "pro").
I suppose I should take your username into account and take you at your word, but wouldn't a player that entirely plays mathematically be easily exploited?
I assumed table talk was at least 10% of poker. Mind games, conditioning your opponent and making reads are present in most sports.
If you play game theory optimal (GTO) then you by definition can not be exploited. For poker a GTO strategy is extremely complex where each decision you make depends on the exact situation and includes varying your decisions over time. Like bluff raising 60% of the time and folding 40% of the time you’re in some very specific situation. It’s basically putting your opponent into a situation that they can’t make a profitable decision in the long term.
It’s not really practically possible to do. But if two people did they would have 0 expected value over time against each other. If one player slightly differed from game theory optimal strategy that would give the other one positive expected value. There is no way they can change from GTO strategy to exploit you.
However, this isn’t necessarily the most profitable way to play against real people. When your opponents aren’t playing GTO, there will be some non-GTO strategy that exploits them most effectively. Like if they call too much then you should raise for value more often than against a GTO opponent and bluff less.
This is exactly wrong. At the highest levels you play your opponent, not only GTO. No one can play pure GTO and you exploit how your opponent moves off GTO.
Maybe if you have a lot of hands and so are confident they're deviating in some hand, otherwise you risk getting exploited yourself.
The players who study GTO instead of trying to win these meta mind games have proven to do very well in online heads up while the old-school mind games guys keep going boom and bust.
Online high stakes heads up cash games is by far the most competitive field in all of poker, for several reasons (global competition, more hands per hour, very few fish, etc).
An online $100/$50 heads up match is probably equivalent to a $10k/$5k live game, in terms of the quality of pros you'll find grinding them.
What do you think represents the highest level of poker instead?
Other than the basics, math is not going to help you win at poker over reading people. The shoot is shuffled after each round, you can’t card count your way to victory. Hand win probabilities are basic math that most poker player just learn instinctively because it’s not that complicated.
There is no definitive reason for creators to be paid. Zero. These platforms can and should stop paying people for their content. Without the platforms, the creators are dead. Make them pay for access to the audience and this whole problem disappears and makes the platforms far more profits.
Kill the influencer, kill the creator. Its all bullshit.
I miss the days when most people uploading things were doing it just for "love of the game" or to find likeminded enthusiasts. Not because it was their "hustle" or something to put on a resume. Those times are sadly long gone.
Advertising is a cancer. Adtech is the delivery mechanism.
Paying creators is the dumbest and most consequential aspect of modern media. There is no reason to reward creators, zero. They should actually be paying Youtube for access to their audience. They actually would pay to be seen, paying them is both stupid and unnecessary. Kill the incentives and you kill the cancer.
Dystopian and frankly, gross. Its amazing to me that so many people are willing to give up control over their lives and in this case, their bodies, for the smallest inkling of ease.
The only thing you have control of in this world is your body (men only, women have already been denied body autonomy in the US), so giving this to the very entities that "do harm" as opposed to those who pledge to "do-no-harm", is straight up bonkers.
It's not the data or the use of said data for the intended purpose. There is a law of sorts in life that says what ever they promise, it will be broken. The data and its intended purpose will be perverted and ultimately used as a weapon against the very people who provided the data.
The LLM still provide value. They are much quicker than seeing a doctor, and with Deep Research for ChatGPT and whatever Gemini google search is calling it now you can actually get to see the sources from the information that it is looking at.
Parsing 100 different scientific articles or even google search results is not going to be possible before I get bored and move on. This is the value of LLM.
Even if the LLM data is used in training or sold off one way to protect oneself, is to add in knowingly incorrect data to the chat. You know it is incorrect, the LLM will believe it. Then the narrative is substantially changed.
Or wait like 6mo and the opensource Chinese models [Kimi/Qwen/Friends] will have caught up to Claude and Gemini IMO. Then just run these models quantized locally on Apple Silicon or GPU.
You will be assigned an individualized risk figure that will determine whether or not you are given coverage and treatment. Those decisions will happen without you or any MDs involvement. You will never know it happened and it will follow you for the rest of your life and your children's lives.
If they are willing to exert this level of indiscretion with privately sold data, I don't see why they wouldn't just use black market PHA in the absence of availability of the former.
Don’t forget that majority of the commenters on this platform live in a country that views suffering in pain from incurable disease as a “god intended way” (and a horse dose of morphine). Take it with a grain of salt.
What specific country are you talking about? I've had people close to me suffer health problems for years waiting for treatment because they worshipped the government healthcare system and government doctors so much that they refused to seek any help outside it.
Problem is, small and solvable health problems become incurable if you don't fix them in time.
Setting aside that you're factually incorrect, this sort of negative stereotyping of others based on their nationality (or ethnicity, or race) is inappropriate, especially on this forum. We don't need more bigotry here.
It's incorrect to notice that citizens of nations have commonly shared cultural beliefs and that affects their individual and aggregate behaviors in predictable ways? Interesting.
You're just saying "negative stereotyping of others based on their nationality (or ethnicity, or race)" with more words.
And yes, it is factually incorrect to say "the commenters on this platform live in a country that views suffering in pain from incurable disease as a “god intended way", because:
1. A country is not a creature and thus cannot have views, and
2. The views of people in the USA are diverse, not unanimous, and include both the view you cited, and the exact opposite view, just like the views of people in every other country.
> Dystopian and frankly, gross. Its amazing to me that so many people are willing to give up control over their lives and in this case, their bodies, for the smallest inkling of ease.
I've read people with chronic conditions reporting that chatgpt actually helped them land correct diagnosis that doctors did not consider so people are not just using that for "inkling of ease".
Please read my comment again. If you lived with chronic pain that multiple doctors failed to correctly diagnose and ChatGPT actually suggested correct diagnosis then you wouldn’t call it just perceived ease, but something that made your life much, much better. I’m doctor and I’m all for empowering patients (as long as they consult ChatGPT output with actual doctors). It’s very easy to criticize people resorting to llms if you do not have any rare debilitating condition that’s not correctly diagnosed.
With all due respect, you are thinking like a good person, a human being who spent decades of their life to learn how to care for people. You took a pledge to Do-no-Harm. You are looking at these tools as tools.
The owners and future owners of said data do not care about anything other than profits and exploitation. They do not care about the patient, the doctor let alone the consequences of their doings. They took a pledge to make-profits regardless of the harm. A position fundamentally opposed to that of the medical doctor.
It’s not mysterious and amorphous. We have seen the results with social media for what? 15 years now? This is a known issue with clear parallels. And health data is way riskier to have floating around.
That's obviously a take from someone who never suffered chronic pain. If you have a life-long mystery illness that doctors don't care about, obviously you're going to give your data to ChatGPT Health because at least, it looks like it's listening...
You have no clue what my medical history is and I will not be sharing it. Clearly you have an axe to grind. You refuse to try and actually discuss this topic without assuming you have the high ground that you’re depending on to spike any attempt at conversation.
I have chronic back pain that everyone knows about. It's not a privacy issue for people to know about it, why would it be? Genuinely don't understand how that gives a shadowy cabal of information brokers leverage over me.
What they seem to be saying is “this is how they get you,” which I agree with. Whether or not it’s immensely helpful is not being debated. There’s a very serious cost no matter what.
> Dystopian and frankly, gross. Its amazing to me that so many people are willing to give up control over their lives and in this case, their bodies, for the smallest inkling of ease.
You have to be extremely privileged to say something like this.
Denied by who? Most developed nations will not, including the US. Either way, that’s a separate problem solved by legislation or increased wealth transfers. Denying people information doesn’t help.
Do you believe that ChatGPT is doing the the research? I'm all in favor of better access and tools to research but at least in the US all of the research is being defunded, we're actively kicking researchers out of the country, and a bunch of white billionaires are proposing this as an alternative, based on training data they won't share.
This is a product feature that invalidates WebMD and the like. It does not solve any health problems.
It's like how the Sackler's did everything they can to make opioids more addictive and increase profit margins, there is virtually no difference between this and Zuckerberg hiring psychologists to make his apps more addictive.
Except the data doesnt back up that assertion. Golf course employees and golfers have no higher rates of than the public at large. So what gives?
If the very people who spend most of their waking lives on the grounds and among those fertilizers and pesticides do not have any great instance, maybe just maybe its something else. Like the gallons of unregulated chemicals that are in those tract houses that were all built around the same time...
one example is the drywall was used extensively in the 90's. Its makeup banned in the country of origin, China but its product was used all throughout the US for decades.
The correlation seems to point to usage ground water that is contaminated with pesticides. So people living close to the golf courses have higher Parkinson risk.
Probably golfers and employees less so.
It will end him, and his insanely stupid ideology. He is obviously a sociopath with very deep childhood trauma. Karma will get him. Probably cancer as he seems to be genially rotten soul.
I don't think cancer works that way. Also there's no such thing as karma, at least not within a person's lifetime. That much should be extremely obvious by the consequence-free success of a great many sociopaths.
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